Daily Brief archive
Each dated edition is a permanent citation for the probability moves and market context recorded that day. Figures may lag live Polymarket data.
The market-implied probability for SpaceX having the highest IPO market cap in 2026 rose by 17 percentage points. In contrast, the probability for Luca Niculescu becoming the next Prime Minister of Romania decreased by 11.6 percentage points.
Read this edition →The Los Angeles Dodgers market saw a significant decline of 22 percentage points in market-implied probability. Other notable movements include a 29.05pp drop for StandX's token launch and a 17pp decrease for the Tampa Bay Rays' championship chances.
Read this edition →The market for Romanian PM Bolojan remaining in office until October 31 saw a significant increase of 26.45pp. Other notable movements include a decline in the StandX FDV market, which dropped by 33.5pp.
Read this edition →The market for the Los Angeles Dodgers winning the 2026 National League Championship Series saw a significant decline of 22.5 percentage points. Other notable movements include the Tampa Bay Rays, which also experienced a drop of 22.25pp.
Read this edition →Market activity reflects notable movements across various categories, particularly in tech and sports. The Gemini 4.0 release market saw a significant increase, while the Reya FDV market experienced a substantial decline.
Read this edition →The market for the Cleveland Guardians winning the 2026 American League Championship Series saw a significant increase of 18.5 percentage points. Additionally, the probability for Raphaël Glucksmann being on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election rose by 24 percentage points.
Read this edition →The market for Mark Sutcliffe winning the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election increased by 11 percentage points. This movement reflects fresh data and medium signal quality. Other notable movements include the Golden State Valkyries' WNBA Finals market, which rose by 10.6pp.
Read this edition →The market for Friedrich Merz being out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027, saw a significant decline of 19 percentage points. Other notable movements include Lamine Yamal's Ballon d'Or chances dropping by 11.9pp and Pete Fry's Vancouver mayoral election odds decreasing by 18.25pp.
Read this edition →The Romanian parliament dissolution market saw a significant decline of 32.5 percentage points. Other notable movements include a rise in the probability for the next governing coalition of Romania by 23.7pp.
Read this edition →The market for Ethereum reaching $3,000 by December 31, 2026, saw a significant decline of 18.5 percentage points. Other notable movements include a drop in the probability for AI-chip export licensing becoming law this year, which fell by 18pp.
Read this edition →This brief highlights key market movements and trends from the past 24 hours. Notable events include significant shifts in the probabilities for various political and crypto markets.
Read this edition →The market for Luca Niculescu becoming the next Prime Minister of Romania saw a significant increase of 33.4 percentage points in the last 24 hours, now standing at a market-implied probability of 42.65%. Other notable movements include the Milwaukee Brewers, whose odds improved by 10 percentage points for the 2026 World Series, while the Los Angeles Dodgers saw a decline of 13 percentage points in their championship odds.
Read this edition →The market for Augusto Cury finishing in third place surged by 61.55 percentage points, while Flávio Bolsonaro's chances dropped by 58.5 percentage points. These movements reflect changing sentiments in the Brazilian presidential election landscape.
Read this edition →The market for the Chicago White Sox winning the 2026 American League Championship Series increased by 8.75 percentage points. Meanwhile, several political markets saw declines, including a 9pp drop for the Spain snap election market.
Read this edition →The market for a Spain snap election called in 2026 saw a significant increase of 40.5 percentage points. In contrast, the market regarding the inclusion of the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania in the next government dropped by 30 percentage points.
Read this edition →The market for Lamine Yamal winning the 2026 Ballon d'Or saw a significant increase of 17.75 percentage points, reaching a market-implied probability of 60.3%. Other notable movements include the Democratic Party's chances in the VA-01 House seat rising by 12pp, while the probability for Abstract FDV above $200M fell by 11pp.
Read this edition →This brief provides an overview of significant market movements and trends from the past 24 hours. Key events include notable shifts in the tech and crypto sectors, particularly surrounding Google's AI model and Concrete FDV.
Read this edition →Significant movements were observed in various markets today, particularly in finance and politics. The market for Oura's IPO saw a notable increase, while the Sinaloa Governor's arrest market also gained traction.
Read this edition →This brief summarizes the latest market movements and trends from EventAlpha. Key events include significant shifts in the probabilities for various political and financial markets.
Read this edition →The market on Romanian PM Bolojan's potential exit by December 31 saw a significant decline of 18.5 percentage points. Other notable movements include a drop in the probability of Trump pardoning Roger Stone before 2027, which fell by 18 percentage points.
Read this edition →This brief provides an overview of the latest market movements and trends from EventAlpha.
Read this edition →The market for Gold (GC) hitting $5,000 by the end of December increased by 12.5 percentage points. Other notable movements include a decline in the Hotstuff FDV market by 13pp and a decrease in Arch Manning's draft position probability by 11.5pp.
Read this edition →The market for Ciro Gomes winning the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election saw a significant decline of 11 percentage points. Other notable movements included a 13.15pp drop for Anthropic's IPO market cap and a 9.95pp increase for the 10-year Treasury yield hitting 5.5% before 2027.
Read this edition →The market for the 10-year Treasury yield saw a significant increase of 40.95 percentage points. In contrast, the probability for A'ja Wilson winning the 2026 WNBA MVP award decreased by 16.45 percentage points.
Read this edition →The StandX FDV market saw a significant increase of 21.5 percentage points, reaching a market-implied probability of 74%. Other notable movements include Nicolás Maduro's leadership probability rising by 8pp and Paul St-Pierre Plamondon's probability increasing by 8.5pp.
Read this edition →The market on whether Russia will enter Dobropillia by September 30 saw a significant increase of 58.5 percentage points, reaching a current probability of 93.5%. Other notable movements include Bitcoin's probability rising by 25pp to 83.5%.
Read this edition →The market for Delcy Rodríguez being the leader of Venezuela by the end of 2026 saw a significant increase of 30 percentage points. This movement is notable within the political category, where several other markets also experienced shifts.
Read this edition →The market for the Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? saw a significant increase of 81.4 percentage points, reaching a market-implied probability of 96.4%. In contrast, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) market dropped by 27 percentage points, indicating a shift in expectations for the upcoming Russian parliamentary election.
Read this edition →The market for Hyperliquid reaching $100 by December 31, 2026, saw a significant increase of 36 percentage points. This movement reflects a strong shift in market-implied probability, indicating heightened confidence among participants.
Read this edition →This brief provides an overview of the latest market movements and trends. Key events include significant shifts in political and financial markets.
Read this edition →The market for Friedrich Merz being out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026, saw a significant decline of 42.5 percentage points. In contrast, the market for the 10-year Treasury yield hitting 5.2% before 2027 increased by 23.9 percentage points.
Read this edition →The Clarity Act market dropped 17.9pp, while Bitcoin's probability fell by 18.5pp. In contrast, the US recession market saw a rise of 16pp.
Read this edition →This brief provides an overview of significant market movements and trends based on the latest data. Key events include notable shifts in AI model performance predictions and cryptocurrency valuations.
Read this edition →This brief provides insights into the latest market movements and trends. Key events include significant shifts in various markets, particularly in finance and politics.
Read this edition →This brief provides an overview of the latest market movements and trends. Key events include significant shifts in geopolitical and political markets.
Read this edition →This brief provides an overview of significant market movements and trends as of September 11, 2026.
Read this edition →The market for no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting saw a significant drop of 14 percentage points. This movement reflects a shift in market-implied probability, indicating changing sentiments among participants.
Read this edition →Significant movements were observed in various markets today, particularly in tech and sports. The market-implied probability for Apple releasing a foldable iPhone dropped sharply, while Ben Shelton's chances of winning the Men's US Open increased notably.
Read this edition →The market regarding whether Israel will close its airspace by September 30 saw a significant increase of 34.7 percentage points, reaching a market-implied probability of 96.2%. Additionally, the market for Apple's potential release of a foldable iPhone also experienced a notable rise of 33.5pp.
Read this edition →Eugen Tomac's probability dropped significantly by 20.25pp in the Romanian Prime Minister market. Other notable movements include a 12.5pp decline in the probability of Israel closing its airspace by September 30.
Read this edition →Significant movements were observed in several political markets today, particularly regarding Russia's actions. The market for Russia entering Ternuvate saw a notable increase of 35.5 percentage points.
Read this edition →The market regarding whether Israel will close its airspace by September 30 has increased by 8.5 percentage points, reaching a current probability of 66.5%. Other notable movements include a decline in the likelihood of Christine Fréchette becoming the next Premier of Quebec, which fell by 11.55pp.
Read this edition →The market for Missouri's new congressional map saw a significant decline of 70pp. Other notable movements include a 71.5pp drop in the Republican Party's chances for the MO-05 House seat and a 40pp increase in the probability of Israel closing its airspace by September 30.
Read this edition →Significant market movements observed today, particularly in the tech and crypto sectors. The AI model market saw a notable increase, while Ethereum's probability declined.
Read this edition →Market movements reflect significant shifts in tech and politics. Notably, the market for GPT-6's release saw a substantial increase.
Read this edition →The market for Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026, saw a significant increase of 16.5 percentage points in market-implied probability. In contrast, the market for Ronaldo Caiado finishing in third place in the Brazilian presidential election dropped by 15.5 percentage points.
Read this edition →The market on Augusto Cury finishing in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election saw a significant increase of 24.75 percentage points. Other notable movements include a 20.85pp rise in the market regarding Russia capturing Sofiivka by December 31.
Read this edition →The market for Eugen Tomac as the next Prime Minister of Romania saw a significant decline of 16.05 percentage points. In contrast, the Bitcoin market increased by 7 percentage points, reflecting a notable shift in sentiment within the crypto sector.
Read this edition →Significant movements were observed in the markets today, particularly in tech and politics. The market for GPT-6's release saw an increase, while Bitcoin's probability dipped.
Read this edition →Market movements reflect significant shifts in various sectors, particularly in finance and geopolitics. The Fed interest rates market saw a notable decline, while the likelihood of a Fed rate hike increased.
Read this edition →This brief provides an overview of the latest market movements and trends from EventAlpha. Key events include significant shifts in political and crypto markets.
Read this edition →Today's market activity reflects notable shifts in various categories, particularly in tech and politics. The Gemini 4.0 release market saw significant upward movement, while several political markets experienced declines.
Read this edition →Today's market activity shows notable movements in the crypto and tech/AI categories, with several markets experiencing significant shifts in their probabilities. Overall, the market remains active with a total of 8,560 markets currently open.
Read this edition →Today's market data reflects notable movements in both political and crypto categories. The Labour Party's seat projections in New Zealand have seen a significant decline, while Democratic House retirements are expected to increase. Overall, market activity remains robust across various sectors.
Read this edition →Today's market activity reflects significant movements in various categories, particularly in crypto and geopolitics. Notably, Ethereum and Zcash have shown contrasting trends in their probabilities.
Read this edition →Today's market activity reflects significant movements in the crypto and politics categories. Notable shifts in probabilities indicate changing sentiments among participants. The overall market remains active with a total of 8,475 markets.
Read this edition →Today's market activity shows significant movements in the crypto and geopolitics categories. Bitcoin's probability surged, while NATO's potential military clash probability declined sharply. Overall, the market remains active with a total volume exceeding $5.9 billion.
Read this edition →Today's market data reflects significant movements in the crypto sector, particularly with notable shifts in probabilities for various cryptocurrencies. Political markets also show activity, but with less dramatic changes. Overall, the landscape remains dynamic with a variety of active markets.
Read this edition →Today's market activity shows significant movements in political and crypto markets, with notable shifts in probabilities. The landscape reflects a mix of high activity and resolution updates.
Read this edition →Today's market activity shows notable movements in various categories, particularly in geopolitics and sports. The crypto sector also experienced significant shifts, with some probabilities declining sharply.
Read this edition →Today's market activity reflects notable shifts in various categories, particularly in politics and crypto. The overall market landscape remains active with significant trading volumes across multiple events.
Read this edition →Today's market activity shows notable movements in political markets, particularly around key nominations and legislative actions. The overall market landscape remains active with a total of 8,579 active markets.
Read this edition →Today's market landscape shows significant movements in both crypto and political categories. The highest activity is observed in markets related to the Federal Reserve and upcoming elections.
Read this edition →Today's market activity reflects notable movements in political and crypto markets. The overall trading volume remains robust, indicating active engagement across various categories.
Read this edition →Today's market data reflects notable movements in finance and politics, particularly surrounding the IPO prospects of Anthropic. The overall activity remains robust with significant engagement across various categories.
Read this edition →Today's market activity reflects significant movements in political markets, particularly regarding gubernatorial races. The finance category also shows notable shifts in expectations around interest rates.
Read this edition →The market landscape today shows significant movements in political and finance categories, with notable shifts in probabilities for key events. The total activity across markets remains robust, indicating ongoing engagement from participants.
Read this edition →Today's market activity reflects notable movements in political and financial predictions. The most significant shifts were observed in the Vermont Governor Democratic primary and Fed rate hike probabilities. Overall, the market remains active with a total volume exceeding $5.7 billion.
Read this edition →Today's market activity reflects notable shifts in political predictions, particularly surrounding the 2026 elections. The market-implied probabilities for several key events have experienced significant changes, indicating evolving sentiments among participants.
Read this edition →Today's market data reveals significant movements in political markets, particularly surrounding gubernatorial elections. The Clarity Act also saw notable activity in the crypto sector. Overall, market activity remains robust with a total volume exceeding $5.7 billion.
Read this edition →Today's market activity reflects notable shifts in political and financial predictions. Several markets have experienced significant changes in their probabilities, particularly in the realm of politics. The overall market landscape remains active with a total of 8,668 active markets.
Read this edition →Today's market activity shows significant movement in several political and sports-related markets. Notably, the probability for Arman Tsarukyan fighting Charles Oliveira has dropped sharply. Overall, the market landscape remains active with a total of 8,683 active markets.
Read this edition →Today's market activity shows notable shifts in political and sports predictions, with significant movements in several key markets. The crypto category also sees a highlight with fresh data impacting probabilities.
Read this edition →Today's market activity shows significant movements in sports and politics, with notable shifts in probabilities. The finance category also reflects some changes, particularly regarding Fed rate expectations.
Read this edition →Today's market activity reflects significant movements in political predictions, particularly regarding U.S. Senate incumbents and Romanian leadership. Overall, the market remains active with a total volume exceeding $5.7 billion.
Read this edition →Today's market activity reflects significant movements in political and geopolitical predictions. Notable shifts include a decrease in the probability of Israel closing its airspace and an increase regarding the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal.
Read this edition →Today's market activity reflects significant movements in political predictions, particularly surrounding Israel and U.S. elections. The crypto market also shows notable interest with Ethereum's probability shifting.
Read this edition →Today's market activity reflects notable movements in both finance and politics, with significant shifts in probabilities for various events. The overall market landscape remains active with a total of 8,817 markets currently operational.
Read this edition →Today's market activity shows significant movements in various categories, particularly in geopolitics and politics. The crypto market also experienced notable shifts, with one market seeing a substantial decline in probability.
Read this edition →The market landscape today shows notable movements primarily in finance and politics. The Fed-related markets have experienced significant declines in probabilities, while some political markets have seen increases. Overall activity remains robust across various categories.
Read this edition →Today's market activity shows significant movements in various political and sports markets, with notable shifts in probabilities for key events. The overall market landscape remains active with a total of 8,844 active markets.
Read this edition →Today's market activity shows significant movements in the tech and geopolitics categories, with notable shifts in probabilities for AI models and geopolitical events. Overall, the market remains active with a total volume exceeding $5.7 billion.
Read this edition →The market landscape shows a mix of movements across various categories, with notable shifts in probabilities for several political and tech-related markets. Overall activity remains robust, reflecting ongoing engagement from participants.
Read this edition →AI-generated from stored EventAlpha market data. Politics dominated the day’s meaningful movers, while crypto, finance, sport, and tech/AI also showed notable repricing. Several high-activity markets remained relatively stable, and a few large moves had no clear external driver identified in the available evidence.
Read this edition →Today's market activity reflects notable movements in both political and sports categories, with significant shifts in probabilities. The landscape shows a mix of high activity and resolution updates.
Read this edition →Today's market data reveals notable shifts in geopolitical predictions, particularly regarding Russia's actions. The overall market activity remains robust with a total volume exceeding $5.7 billion.
Read this edition →Today's market activity shows notable movements in geopolitics and politics. The market-implied probabilities for several key events have shifted significantly, reflecting changing sentiments among participants.
Read this edition →Today's market activity shows significant movements in finance and politics, with notable shifts in probabilities. The Bank of Russia's key rate decision is a focal point, alongside various political predictions.
Read this edition →Today's market activity reflects notable shifts in several key areas, particularly in politics and sports. The most significant movement was observed in the Ottawa mayoral election market, alongside substantial changes in the Ballon d'Or predictions.
Read this edition →Today's market activity reflects significant movements in sports betting, particularly surrounding the FIFA World Cup. Notable shifts in probabilities highlight changing expectations for key players and teams.
Read this edition →Today's market activity reflects notable movements in sports and politics, with significant shifts in probabilities. The overall market landscape remains active with a total of 8,798 active markets.
Read this edition →Today's market activity reflects notable movements in various sectors, particularly in politics and crypto. The overall market landscape shows a mix of significant shifts and stable consensus across categories.
Read this edition →Today's market activity reflects notable movements in political and sports categories, with significant shifts in probabilities for several key events. The overall market landscape remains active with a total of 8797 markets.
Read this edition →AI-generated from stored EventAlpha market data. The day’s largest stored moves were concentrated in sports, with additional sharp repricing in finance, politics, crypto, and tech/AI. Activity remained broad across politics and sports, while several high-volume markets were stable-consensus or resolution-watch rather than fresh movers.
Read this edition →AI-generated from stored EventAlpha market data. The day’s largest 24h moves were concentrated in politics, sport, and finance, with several markets showing large repricing and no clear external driver identified in the available attribution data. Activity remained broad across a large market set, with sport and politics carrying the highest category activity.
Read this edition →AI-generated from stored EventAlpha market data. The day’s largest stored moves were concentrated in geopolitics, tech/AI, sport, finance, and crypto, with several high-activity Fed and World Cup markets also standing out. Resolution updates were present, but they reflect settlement rather than fresh repricing.
Read this edition →AI-generated from stored EventAlpha market data. Politics, sport, and finance showed the most notable 24h repricing in the available data, while several high-activity markets remained relatively stable. Resolution updates were also prominent, reflecting settlement rather than fresh repricing.
Read this edition →AI-generated from stored EventAlpha market data. The day’s largest fresh moves were concentrated in politics, sport, finance, and crypto, while several high-activity markets remained relatively stable. Resolution updates also showed multiple closed markets settling to 0 or 100, which should be read as settlement context rather than new repricing.
Read this edition →AI-generated from stored EventAlpha market data in riskNotes. The day’s stored data shows several large 24h moves in politics, sport, finance, crypto, and tech/AI, alongside a few high-activity stable-consensus markets. Resolution updates also show multiple markets settling to 0 or 100, which should be read as settlement context rather than fresh repricing.
Read this edition →AI-generated from stored EventAlpha market data. Sports and crypto led the day’s larger 24h moves, while several high-activity markets remained near-stable consensus. Resolution updates were also prominent, reflecting settled markets rather than fresh repricing.
Read this edition →Today's market activity reflects notable shifts in political and sports predictions. The political landscape is particularly dynamic, with significant movements in the probabilities surrounding key candidates for the upcoming French presidential election.
Read this edition →AI-generated from stored EventAlpha market data. Politics and sport dominated the day’s stored movement and activity, with several French-election markets showing large 24h swings and multiple high-volume political contracts leading activity. 24h movement is available in the source data, and the latest sync was recorded at 2026-07-07T20:54:00.482Z.
Read this edition →AI-generated from stored EventAlpha market data. Markets were broadly active, with notable 24h moves concentrated in finance, crypto, politics, and sport. The largest activity remained in politics and sport, while several high-volume markets showed only modest 24h movement.
Read this edition →Market activity remains robust with significant movements observed in various categories. The tech/AI sector shows notable volatility, while sports markets continue to attract high volumes.
Read this edition →Today's market activity reflects significant movements in political and economic predictions. The overall market-implied probabilities show varied sentiment across categories.
Read this edition →Market activity remains robust with significant movements in various categories. The finance and crypto sectors show notable fluctuations in probabilities.
Read this edition →Stored EventAlpha market data shows broad activity across sports and politics, with several sharp 24h probability moves in active markets. 24h movement data is available, and the latest sync was recorded at 2026-07-02T22:05:57.166Z. The highest-activity market in the available data was a politics market with over 2.0M in 24h volume.
Read this edition →AI-generated from stored EventAlpha market data. Active markets totaled 7,965, with total activity of 8,854,424,233.177708 and the latest sync at 2026-06-30T20:26:46.122Z. The day’s stored data shows sharp moves in sport, politics, and crypto, alongside one very high-activity Wimbledon market.
Read this edition →AI-generated from stored EventAlpha market data. Active markets totaled 7,899, with $8.44B in total activity and market snapshots available for 8,329 markets. 24h movement data is available, and the day’s largest moves were concentrated across politics, finance, tech/AI, crypto, and sport.
Read this edition →AI-generated from stored EventAlpha market data. Active markets totaled 7,818, with total activity of 8,317,419,920.29 and market snapshots available for 8,227 markets. Movement data is available in the source, and the day’s largest shifts were concentrated in sport, tech/AI, finance, and politics.
Read this edition →AI-generated from stored EventAlpha market data. Activity remains concentrated in politics and sport, while the largest 24h moves are clustered across sport, finance, and crypto. The latest sync in the available data is 2026-06-23T19:56:47.228Z.
Read this edition →AI-generated from stored EventAlpha market data. Active markets totaled 7,505, with total activity of 7,926,453,072.53 and market snapshots available for 7,911 markets. Movement data was available in the source, and the latest sync was recorded at 2026-06-22T22:29:34.614Z.
Read this edition →AI-generated from stored EventAlpha market data. Active markets totaled 7,435 with $7.52B in recorded activity, and the latest sync was 2026-06-18T21:51:47.092Z. Sports and politics dominated activity, while several individual markets showed sharp 24h moves across sport, politics, crypto, and finance.
Read this edition →AI-generated from stored EventAlpha market data. Active markets totaled 7,435, with 7,840 markets carrying snapshots and total activity of 7,520,881,672.18 in the available data. Movement data is available, and the latest sync was recorded at 2026-06-18T21:51:47.092Z. The day’s largest moves were concentrated in sport and politics, while high-activity FIFA World Cup markets dominated volume.
Read this edition →AI-generated from stored EventAlpha market data. Crypto showed the sharpest positive 24h moves in the available data, while several sport and finance markets posted notable declines. Activity was concentrated in large sport markets, especially 2026 FIFA World Cup contracts, with the latest sync recorded at 2026-06-17T21:49:20.601Z.
Read this edition →AI-generated from stored EventAlpha market data. The available snapshot shows 7,417 active markets and 7.15B in total activity, with data last updated at 2026-06-16T22:25:44.536Z. Politics and sport account for the largest activity pools, while several markets show very large 24h probability moves in both directions.
Read this edition →