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EventAlpha · Daily Intelligence Brief
Monday, 14 September 2026 · 14 Sept 2026, 04:36 UTC
Polymarket · 7,701 markets · Synced 14 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTC
Produced by EventAlpha's automated editorial system. AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge. Review the methodology.
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EventAlpha Daily Brief — 2026-09-14 Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? market rose 12.5pp 1. Pro Football: 2026 MVP Winner (17%, +9.8pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-caleb-williams-win-the-2026-nfl-mvp-747730 2. Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? (46%, -7.8pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-anthropic-have-the-highest-ipo-market-cap-2026-321564 3. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? (30%, +6.5pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026-163699 Full brief: https://www.theeventalpha.com/daily-brief/2026-09-14 Read-only. Not financial advice.
Continuity
Compared against the brief filed on 2026-09-13.
Markets appearing in today's brief but not in the previous edition.
What moved overnight
Primary discovery only: ≥5pp move, ≥$10K activity, ≥$1K liquidity. Named events and moves first — not category vibes.
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
17%
+9.8pp
Caleb Williams
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Caleb Williams moved +9.8pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 8.5pp, from 10% to 18%, between 22:00 and 23:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #1 of 40 candidates: +9.8pp move, $11K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
13 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
12 active outcomes · source-grouped
46%
-7.8pp
Anthropic
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Anthropic moved -7.8pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: fell 11.5pp from 58% to 46%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #2 of 40 candidates: -7.8pp move, $24K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
6 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
30%
+6.5pp
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? moved +6.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 8.0pp, from 22% to 30%, between 02:00 and 03:00 UTC. Recent activity was materially above current liquidity, supporting a real repricing rather than an isolated thin-market tick.
Ranked #3 of 40 candidates: +6.5pp move, $918K activity.
2 active outcomes · source-grouped
67%
+6.0pp
Democratic
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Democratic moved +6.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 4.0pp, from 61% to 65%, between 14:00 and 15:00 UTC. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #4 of 40 candidates: +6.0pp move, $88K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
23%
-5.0pp
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? moved -5.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 4.5pp, from 28% to 23%, between 07:00 and 08:00 UTC. The move was accompanied by substantial recent activity and adequate liquidity.
Ranked #5 of 40 candidates: -5.0pp move, $18K activity.
Weaker signals
Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
23%
+12.5pp
Donald Brodie
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Donald Brodie moved +12.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 15.0pp, from 11% to 26%, between 13:00 and 14:00 UTC. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #6 of 40 candidates: +12.5pp move, $502 activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
12 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
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Markets carried forward from the previous brief into today's edition.
Included because probability moved -7.8pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved +6.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved -5.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved +4.7pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.7pp.
High activity
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.4pp.
High activity
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
Included because probability moved +2.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Markets featured in the previous brief that are not in today's edition.
Included because probability moved +5.4pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved +3.5pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
Included because probability moved +3.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved +4.8pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge.
14 active outcomes · source-grouped
70%
-12.0pp
↑$1.0T
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
↑$1.0T moved -12.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 11.5pp, from 82% to 70%, between 08:00 and 09:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #7 of 40 candidates: -12.0pp move, $3K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
95%
+7.0pp
Cam Schlittler
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Cam Schlittler moved +7.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 3.6pp, from 92% to 89%, between 03:00 and 04:00 UTC. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #8 of 40 candidates: +7.0pp move, $3K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
11 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
7 active outcomes · source-grouped
74%
-6.6pp
1.5T+
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
1.5T+ moved -6.6pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 6.0pp, from 68% to 74%, between 16:00 and 17:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #9 of 40 candidates: -6.6pp move, $2K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
1 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
Probably noise
Exact credibility failures are shown so weak participation is not mistaken for signal.
17%
—
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Shown only to explain why EventAlpha would not put this on the overnight shortlist.
Probability or movement data is incomplete.
Failed primary floor: 24h move 0.0pp is below 5pp.
Ranked #39 of 40 candidates: $110K activity.
8%
—
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Shown only to explain why EventAlpha would not put this on the overnight shortlist.
Probability or movement data is incomplete.
Failed primary floor: 24h move 0.0pp is below 5pp.
Ranked #40 of 40 candidates: $106K activity.