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EventAlpha · Daily Intelligence Brief
Sunday, 13 September 2026 · 13 Sept 2026, 04:30 UTC
Polymarket · 7,736 markets · Synced 13 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
Produced by EventAlpha's automated editorial system. AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge. Review the methodology.
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EventAlpha Daily Brief — 2026-09-13 Texas Longhorns market rose 13.5pp 1. Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by...? (48%, -19.5pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-russia-capture-rai-oleksandrivka-by-december-31-373865 2. OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap (98%, +5.3pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-openai-not-ipo-by-december-31-2026-608368 3. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? (22%, +5.0pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026-163699 Full brief: https://www.theeventalpha.com/daily-brief/2026-09-13 Read-only. Not financial advice.
Continuity
Compared against the brief filed on 2026-09-12.
Markets appearing in today's brief but not in the previous edition.
What moved overnight
Primary discovery only: ≥5pp move, ≥$10K activity, ≥$1K liquidity. Named events and moves first — not category vibes.
2 active outcomes · source-grouped
48%
-19.5pp
December 31
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
December 31 moved -19.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 27.0pp, from 66% to 39%, between 15:00 and 16:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #1 of 40 candidates: -19.5pp move, $12K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
7 active outcomes · source-grouped
98%
+5.3pp
No IPO by December 31, 2026
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
No IPO by December 31, 2026 moved +5.3pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 3.0pp, from 93% to 96%, between 16:00 and 17:00 UTC. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #2 of 40 candidates: +5.3pp move, $25K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
1 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
22%
+5.0pp
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? moved +5.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 3.0pp, from 19% to 22%, between 10:00 and 11:00 UTC. The move was accompanied by substantial recent activity and adequate liquidity.
Ranked #3 of 40 candidates: +5.0pp move, $127K activity.
4 active outcomes · source-grouped
16%
-5.0pp
October 31
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
October 31 moved -5.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 6.5pp, from 22% to 28%, between 10:00 and 11:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #4 of 40 candidates: -5.0pp move, $39K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
6 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
4 active outcomes · source-grouped
14%
+5.0pp
September 30
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
September 30 moved +5.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 7.0pp, from 9% to 16%, between 18:00 and 19:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #5 of 40 candidates: +5.0pp move, $12K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
1 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
Weaker signals
Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
44%
+12.3pp
Alexandru Nazare
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Alexandru Nazare moved +12.3pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 7.6pp, from 32% to 40%, between 17:00 and 18:00 UTC. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #6 of 40 candidates: +12.3pp move, $4K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
20 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
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Markets carried forward from the previous brief into today's edition.
Included because probability moved -19.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved +5.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
Markets featured in the previous brief that are not in today's edition.
Resolution watch: market is near-certain or awaiting resolution — not a fresh probability signal.
Resolution watch
Resolution watch: market is near-certain or awaiting resolution — not a fresh probability signal.
Resolution watch
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.6pp).
Stable consensus
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
Included because probability moved +1.4pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Resolution watch: market is near-certain or awaiting resolution — not a fresh probability signal.
Resolution watch
AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge.
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
2%
-11.8pp
Oregon Ducks
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Oregon Ducks moved -11.8pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: fell 12.0pp from 14% to 2%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #7 of 40 candidates: -11.8pp move, $4K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
2 active outcomes · source-grouped
21%
+9.1pp
John Shulli
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
John Shulli moved +9.1pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: rose 11.6pp from 10% to 21%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #8 of 40 candidates: +9.1pp move, $3K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
67%
-7.8pp
↑ 90
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
↑ 90 moved -7.8pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 13.9pp, from 75% to 61%, between 08:00 and 09:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #9 of 40 candidates: -7.8pp move, $3K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
22 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
Probably noise
Exact credibility failures are shown so weak participation is not mistaken for signal.
5 active outcomes · source-grouped
21%
—
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Shown only to explain why EventAlpha would not put this on the overnight shortlist.
Probability or movement data is incomplete.
Failed primary floor: 24h move 0.0pp is below 5pp.
Ranked #38 of 40 candidates: $2.1M activity.
Different deadline
3 active outcomes · source-grouped
7%
—
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Shown only to explain why EventAlpha would not put this on the overnight shortlist.
Probability or movement data is incomplete.
Failed primary floor: 24h move 0.0pp is below 5pp.
Ranked #39 of 40 candidates: $81K activity.