Evaluated signals
19207
Paired with a follow-up snapshot
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Evidence, not promises
A transparent measurement of whether meaningful EventAlpha market moves continued, stalled, or reversed over the following 24 hours.
This is not a win rate, forecast score, or trading return. It tests one narrower question: after EventAlpha’s current meaningful-move criteria are met, does probability keep moving in the same direction during the next day?
Evaluated signals
19207
Paired with a follow-up snapshot
Continued
16%
3127 moved another ≥1pp
Reversed
25%
4805 moved back by ≥1pp
Average follow-through
-0.2pp
Direction-adjusted probability points
Latest independent qualifying move per market, with its next-day observation.
Rolling 90-day window
| Market | Signal move | At signal | Next day | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran coup attempt by December 31? Geopolitics · 6 Oct 2026 | +1.0pp | 11% | 11% | flat |
| Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Sport · 6 Oct 2026 | -1.8pp | 17% | 16% | flat |
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? Finance · 6 Oct 2026 | -1.0pp | 83% | 84% | reversed |
| Will Maryland use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? Politics · 6 Oct 2026 | -1.0pp | 3% | 2% | flat |
| Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch? Crypto · 6 Oct 2026 | -1.0pp | 14% | 2% | continued |
| Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin before 2027? Politics · 6 Oct 2026 | -1.0pp | 3% | 3% | flat |
| Will Solana dip to $70 by December 31, 2026? Crypto · 6 Oct 2026 | -1.0pp | 12% | 12% | flat |
| Will Caleb Williams win the 2026 NFL MVP? Sport · 6 Oct 2026 | -1.0pp | 2% | 3% | flat |
Snapshot gaps and changing market liquidity can affect the sample. Historical behaviour does not establish causality or predict future outcomes. See the full methodology.