Evidence, not promises

Signal follow-through

A transparent measurement of whether meaningful EventAlpha market moves continued, stalled, or reversed over the following 24 hours.

This is not a win rate, forecast score, or trading return. It tests one narrower question: after EventAlpha’s current meaningful-move criteria are met, does probability keep moving in the same direction during the next day?

Evaluated signals

19834

Paired with a follow-up snapshot

Continued

17%

3357 moved another ≥1pp

Reversed

27%

5443 moved back by ≥1pp

Average follow-through

-0.3pp

Direction-adjusted probability points

Recent evaluated signals

Latest independent qualifying move per market, with its next-day observation.

Rolling 90-day window

Market	Signal move	At signal	Next day	Result
Will the Indiana Pacers make the 2027 NBA Playoffs? Sport · 5 Nov 2026	-2.0pp	40%	42%	reversed
Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Sport · 5 Nov 2026	+1.0pp	8%	8%	flat
Will Janelle Kellman win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026? Politics · 5 Nov 2026	+1.1pp	1%	1%	flat
Will the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat? Politics · 5 Nov 2026	+1.1pp	2%	1%	flat
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Sport · 5 Nov 2026	+1.0pp	24%	24%	flat
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-07 House seat? Politics · 5 Nov 2026	-2.1pp	97%	100%	reversed
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2027? Crypto · 5 Nov 2026	-1.0pp	22%	24%	reversed
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the 2027 NBA Playoffs? Sport · 5 Nov 2026	+3.0pp	80%	80%	flat

How this is measured

• A signal must move by at least 1 probability point over 24 hours and have at least $10,000 of 24h volume or liquidity.
• Near-certain markets at 1% or 99% are excluded, as are inactive snapshots.
• Repeated observations are reduced to at most one signal per market every 24 hours.
• The follow-up is the first stored snapshot 20–36 hours later.
• A move of less than 1 point either way is classified as flat.

Snapshot gaps and changing market liquidity can affect the sample. Historical behaviour does not establish causality or predict future outcomes. See the full methodology.

Signal follow-through

A transparent measurement of whether meaningful EventAlpha market moves continued, stalled, or reversed over the following 24 hours.

Market

Signal move

At signal

Next day

Result

Will the Indiana Pacers make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?

Sport · 5 Nov 2026

-2.0pp

40%

42%

reversed

Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?

Sport · 5 Nov 2026

+1.0pp

flat

Will Janelle Kellman win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?

Politics · 5 Nov 2026

+1.1pp

flat

Will the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat?

Politics · 5 Nov 2026

+1.1pp

flat

Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?

Sport · 5 Nov 2026

+1.0pp

24%

flat

Will the Democratic Party win the CA-07 House seat?

Politics · 5 Nov 2026

-2.1pp

97%

100%

reversed

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2027?

Crypto · 5 Nov 2026

-1.0pp

22%

24%

reversed

Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?

Sport · 5 Nov 2026

+3.0pp

80%

flat

How this is measured

• A signal must move by at least 1 probability point over 24 hours and have at least $10,000 of 24h volume or liquidity.

• Near-certain markets at 1% or 99% are excluded, as are inactive snapshots.

• Repeated observations are reduced to at most one signal per market every 24 hours.

• The follow-up is the first stored snapshot 20–36 hours later.

• A move of less than 1 point either way is classified as flat.

Snapshot gaps and changing market liquidity can affect the sample. Historical behaviour does not establish causality or predict future outcomes. See the full methodology.