Primary discovery only: ≥5pp move, ≥$10K activity, ≥$1K liquidity. Named events and moves first — not category vibes.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5 active outcomes in this event
5.5%
Enough trading activity is behind this move to take it seriously.
5.5% moved -8.9pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 9.8pp, from 55% to 45%, between 15:00 and 16:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #1 of 40 moves reviewed: -8.9pp move, $14K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$14K traded in 24h$43K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 2 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 13 outcomes
- 5.5%42% · -8.9pp
- 5.7%17% · -4.0pp
- 6.0%7% · -1.2pp
- 5.4%64% · —
- 5.3%87% · -2.5pp
- 4.3%(resolved)100% · +1.6pp
7 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Outcomes divergingSignal: High
VA-01 House Election Winner
2 active outcomes in this event
Rob Wittman (R)
Enough trading activity is behind this move to take it seriously.
Rob Wittman (R) moved -8.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 9.5pp, from 62% to 52%, between 11:00 and 12:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #2 of 40 moves reviewed: -8.5pp move, $10K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$10K traded in 24h$23K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 2 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 2 outcomes
Outcomes divergingSignal: High
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
16 active outcomes in this event
Renan Santos
Enough trading activity is behind this move to take it seriously.
Renan Santos moved +8.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 5.5pp, from 49% to 54%, between 23:00 and 00:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #3 of 40 moves reviewed: +8.0pp move, $99K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$99K traded in 24h$178K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 2 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
3 more outcomes in this event are not shown here.
Outcomes divergingSignal: High
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
16 active outcomes in this event
Lamine Yamal
Enough trading activity is behind this move to take it seriously.
Lamine Yamal moved +8.0pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: rose 7.8pp from 45% to 53%, gradually rather than in one jump. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #4 of 40 moves reviewed: +8.0pp move, $208K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$208K traded in 24h$969K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 2 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
15 more outcomes in this event are not shown here.
Outcomes divergingSignal: High
Bulgaria Presidential Election
14 active outcomes in this event
Аndrey Gyurov
Enough trading activity is behind this move to take it seriously.
Аndrey Gyurov moved -5.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 5.0pp, from 21% to 16%, between 09:00 and 10:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #5 of 40 moves reviewed: -5.0pp move, $27K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$27K traded in 24h$32K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 2 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 14 outcomes
8 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.