Daily Polymarket Signal Brief

Top investigations

What cleared the high-trust bar

Primary discovery only: ≥5pp move, ≥$10K activity, ≥$1K liquidity. Explained developments rank above unexplained.

Fresh consensus shiftSignal: High

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

35%

-9.0pp

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Investigate — this cleared EventAlpha's high-trust discovery floors.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? moved -9.0pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: fell 11.0pp from 46% to 35%; no single sharp inflection was detected. The move was accompanied by substantial recent activity and adequate liquidity.

Ranked #1 of 40 candidates: -9.0pp move, $273K activity.

Primary market 24h activity $273KLiquidity $322KUpdated 18 Aug 2026, 02:00 UTCUnexplained repricing

Open investigate pack Verify on Polymarket ↗

Deadline clusterSignal: High

2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)

16 active outcomes · source-grouped

43%

-8.0pp

Jannik Sinner

Investigate — this cleared EventAlpha's high-trust discovery floors.

Jannik Sinner moved -8.0pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: fell 8.0pp from 51% to 43%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.

Ranked #2 of 40 candidates: -8.0pp move, $17K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.

Primary market 24h activity $17KGrouped event 24h activity $272KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 18 Aug 2026, 02:00 UTCUnexplained repricing

Open investigate pack Verify on Polymarket ↗

Compare 16 source-linked outcomes

Jannik Sinner43% · -8.0pp
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open?6% · -0.1pp
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's US Open?2% · +0.2pp
Carlos Alcaraz12% · -1.0pp
Jakub Mensik1% · +0.2pp
Daniil Medvedev3% · +0.7pp

10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.

6 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.

Deadline clusterSignal: High

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

16 active outcomes · source-grouped

47%

+7.0pp

↑ 75,000

Investigate — this cleared EventAlpha's high-trust discovery floors.

↑ 75,000 moved +7.0pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: rose 6.0pp from 41% to 47%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.

Ranked #3 of 40 candidates: +7.0pp move, $13K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.

Primary market 24h activity $13KGrouped event 24h activity $504KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 18 Aug 2026, 02:00 UTCUnexplained repricing

Open investigate pack Verify on Polymarket ↗

Compare 16 source-linked outcomes

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?21% · -3.5pp
↑ 75,00047% · +7.0pp
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?29% · +5.5pp
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?20% · +2.0pp
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?16% · —
↑ 100,0008% · —

10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.

27 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.

Deadline clusterSignal: High

IPOs before 2027?

16 active outcomes · source-grouped

87%

+6.0pp

Anthropic

Investigate — this cleared EventAlpha's high-trust discovery floors.

Anthropic moved +6.0pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: rose 7.0pp from 80% to 87%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.

Ranked #4 of 40 candidates: +6.0pp move, $19K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.

Primary market 24h activity $19KGrouped event 24h activity $25KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 18 Aug 2026, 02:00 UTCUnexplained repricing

Open investigate pack Verify on Polymarket ↗

Compare 16 source-linked outcomes

Anthropic87% · +6.0pp
OpenAI24% · +3.0pp
SHEIN99% · -0.5pp
Discord30% · +0.7pp
ByteDance10% · -0.5pp
Vanta8% · -1.0pp

10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.

18 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.

Low-confidence watch

Interesting, but thinner participation

Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the top list.

Deadline clusterSignal: Medium

Printr FDV above ___ one day after launch?

10 active outcomes · source-grouped

-20.8pp

$50M

Monitor — interesting move, but participation is below the primary bar.

$50M moved -20.8pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 9.9pp, from 22% to 12%, between 16:01 and 17:01 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.

Ranked #5 of 40 candidates: -20.8pp move, $2K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.

Primary market 24h activity $2KGrouped event 24h activity $16KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 18 Aug 2026, 02:00 UTCUnexplained repricing

Open investigate pack Verify on Polymarket ↗

Compare 10 source-linked outcomes

$50M4% · -20.8pp
$100M5% · -1.8pp
$80M3% · -20.7pp
$400M3% · -1.1pp
$300M3% · -1.1pp
$150M4% · -3.1pp

4 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.

Relative mispricingSignal: Medium

How many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?

4 active outcomes · source-grouped

92%

+13.0pp

Monitor — interesting move, but participation is below the primary bar.

0 moved +13.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 8.0pp, from 79% to 87%, between 12:00 and 13:00 UTC. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.

Ranked #6 of 40 candidates: +13.0pp move, $1K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.

Primary market 24h activity $1KGrouped event 24h activity $14KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 18 Aug 2026, 02:00 UTCUnexplained repricing

Open investigate pack Verify on Polymarket ↗

Compare 6 source-linked outcomes

092% · +13.0pp
30% · —
21% · -2.4pp
18% · -2.9pp
>4(resolved)0% · -4.3pp
4(resolved)0% · -0.8pp

Fresh consensus shiftSignal: Low

Will Russia capture Serhiivka by...?

1 active outcomes · source-grouped

19%

-12.5pp

December 31

Monitor — interesting move, but participation is below the primary bar.

December 31 moved -12.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 11.5pp, from 31% to 20%, between 21:01 and 22:03 UTC. Recent activity was materially above current liquidity, supporting a real repricing rather than an isolated thin-market tick.

Ranked #7 of 40 candidates: -12.5pp move, $6K activity.

Primary market 24h activity $6KGrouped event 24h activity $6KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 18 Aug 2026, 02:00 UTCUnexplained repricing

Open investigate pack Verify on Polymarket ↗

Compare 4 source-linked outcomes

December 3119% · -12.5pp
May 31(resolved)0% · -0.8pp
July 31(resolved)0% · -0.1pp
April 30(resolved)0% · -0.8pp

Deadline clusterSignal: Medium

NZ Election: National Party # of seats?

7 active outcomes · source-grouped

38%

+12.0pp

30-34

Monitor — interesting move, but participation is below the primary bar.

30-34 moved +12.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 12.0pp, from 26% to 38%, between 10:00 and 11:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.

Ranked #8 of 40 candidates: +12.0pp move, $1K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.

Primary market 24h activity $1KGrouped event 24h activity $1KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 18 Aug 2026, 02:00 UTCUnexplained repricing

Open investigate pack Verify on Polymarket ↗

Compare 7 source-linked outcomes

30-3438% · +12.0pp
45-491% · —
35-3923% · -6.0pp
50+5% · -8.7pp
40-4435% · +4.5pp
25-292% · -0.05pp

1 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.

Discounted noise

Large moves we would not promote

Exact credibility failures are shown so weak participation is not mistaken for signal.

Noise trapSignal: Low

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

—

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ignore for discovery — surfaced only to show why it was discounted.

Probability or movement data is incomplete.

Failed primary floor: 24h move 0.0pp is below 5pp.

Ranked #40 of 40 candidates: $109K activity.

Primary market 24h activity $109KLiquidity $741KUpdated 18 Aug 2026, 02:00 UTCDiscounted noise

Open investigate pack

What cleared the high-trust bar

Primary discovery only: ≥5pp move, ≥$10K activity, ≥$1K liquidity. Explained developments rank above unexplained.

Fresh consensus shiftSignal: High

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

35%

-9.0pp

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Investigate — this cleared EventAlpha's high-trust discovery floors.

Ranked #1 of 40 candidates: -9.0pp move, $273K activity.

Primary market 24h activity $273KLiquidity $322KUpdated 18 Aug 2026, 02:00 UTCUnexplained repricing

Open investigate pack Verify on Polymarket ↗

Deadline clusterSignal: High

2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)

16 active outcomes · source-grouped

43%

-8.0pp

Jannik Sinner

Investigate — this cleared EventAlpha's high-trust discovery floors.

Ranked #2 of 40 candidates: -8.0pp move, $17K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.

Primary market 24h activity $17KGrouped event 24h activity $272KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 18 Aug 2026, 02:00 UTCUnexplained repricing

Open investigate pack Verify on Polymarket ↗

Compare 16 source-linked outcomes

Jannik Sinner43% · -8.0pp
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open?6% · -0.1pp
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's US Open?2% · +0.2pp
Carlos Alcaraz12% · -1.0pp
Jakub Mensik1% · +0.2pp
Daniil Medvedev3% · +0.7pp

10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.

6 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.

Deadline clusterSignal: High

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

16 active outcomes · source-grouped

47%

+7.0pp

↑ 75,000

Investigate — this cleared EventAlpha's high-trust discovery floors.

Ranked #3 of 40 candidates: +7.0pp move, $13K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.

Primary market 24h activity $13KGrouped event 24h activity $504KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 18 Aug 2026, 02:00 UTCUnexplained repricing

Open investigate pack Verify on Polymarket ↗

Compare 16 source-linked outcomes

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?21% · -3.5pp
↑ 75,00047% · +7.0pp
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?29% · +5.5pp
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?20% · +2.0pp
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?16% · —
↑ 100,0008% · —

10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.

27 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.

Deadline clusterSignal: High

IPOs before 2027?

16 active outcomes · source-grouped

87%

+6.0pp

Anthropic

Investigate — this cleared EventAlpha's high-trust discovery floors.

Ranked #4 of 40 candidates: +6.0pp move, $19K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.

Primary market 24h activity $19KGrouped event 24h activity $25KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 18 Aug 2026, 02:00 UTCUnexplained repricing

Open investigate pack Verify on Polymarket ↗

Compare 16 source-linked outcomes

Anthropic87% · +6.0pp
OpenAI24% · +3.0pp
SHEIN99% · -0.5pp
Discord30% · +0.7pp
ByteDance10% · -0.5pp
Vanta8% · -1.0pp

10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.

18 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.

Interesting, but thinner participation

Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the top list.

Deadline clusterSignal: Medium

Printr FDV above ___ one day after launch?

10 active outcomes · source-grouped

-20.8pp

$50M

Monitor — interesting move, but participation is below the primary bar.

Ranked #5 of 40 candidates: -20.8pp move, $2K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.

Primary market 24h activity $2KGrouped event 24h activity $16KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 18 Aug 2026, 02:00 UTCUnexplained repricing

Open investigate pack Verify on Polymarket ↗

Compare 10 source-linked outcomes

$50M4% · -20.8pp
$100M5% · -1.8pp
$80M3% · -20.7pp
$400M3% · -1.1pp
$300M3% · -1.1pp
$150M4% · -3.1pp

4 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.

Relative mispricingSignal: Medium

How many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?

4 active outcomes · source-grouped

92%

+13.0pp

Monitor — interesting move, but participation is below the primary bar.

Ranked #6 of 40 candidates: +13.0pp move, $1K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.

Primary market 24h activity $1KGrouped event 24h activity $14KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 18 Aug 2026, 02:00 UTCUnexplained repricing

Open investigate pack Verify on Polymarket ↗

Compare 6 source-linked outcomes

092% · +13.0pp
30% · —
21% · -2.4pp
18% · -2.9pp
>4(resolved)0% · -4.3pp
4(resolved)0% · -0.8pp

Fresh consensus shiftSignal: Low

Will Russia capture Serhiivka by...?

1 active outcomes · source-grouped

19%

-12.5pp

December 31

Monitor — interesting move, but participation is below the primary bar.

Ranked #7 of 40 candidates: -12.5pp move, $6K activity.

Primary market 24h activity $6KGrouped event 24h activity $6KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 18 Aug 2026, 02:00 UTCUnexplained repricing

Open investigate pack Verify on Polymarket ↗

Compare 4 source-linked outcomes

December 3119% · -12.5pp
May 31(resolved)0% · -0.8pp
July 31(resolved)0% · -0.1pp
April 30(resolved)0% · -0.8pp

Deadline clusterSignal: Medium

NZ Election: National Party # of seats?

7 active outcomes · source-grouped

38%

+12.0pp

30-34

Monitor — interesting move, but participation is below the primary bar.

Ranked #8 of 40 candidates: +12.0pp move, $1K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.

Primary market 24h activity $1KGrouped event 24h activity $1KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 18 Aug 2026, 02:00 UTCUnexplained repricing

Open investigate pack Verify on Polymarket ↗

Compare 7 source-linked outcomes

30-3438% · +12.0pp
45-491% · —
35-3923% · -6.0pp
50+5% · -8.7pp
40-4435% · +4.5pp
25-292% · -0.05pp

1 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.

Large moves we would not promote

Exact credibility failures are shown so weak participation is not mistaken for signal.

Noise trapSignal: Low

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

—

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ignore for discovery — surfaced only to show why it was discounted.

Probability or movement data is incomplete.

Failed primary floor: 24h move 0.0pp is below 5pp.

Ranked #40 of 40 candidates: $109K activity.

Primary market 24h activity $109KLiquidity $741KUpdated 18 Aug 2026, 02:00 UTCDiscounted noise

Open investigate pack

Market-implied probability intelligence for the day ahead

What cleared the high-trust bar

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

IPOs before 2027?

Interesting, but thinner participation

Printr FDV above ___ one day after launch?

How many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?

Will Russia capture Serhiivka by...?

NZ Election: National Party # of seats?

Large moves we would not promote

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Market-implied probability intelligence for the day ahead

What cleared the high-trust bar

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

IPOs before 2027?

Interesting, but thinner participation

Printr FDV above ___ one day after launch?

How many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?

Will Russia capture Serhiivka by...?

NZ Election: National Party # of seats?

Large moves we would not promote

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?