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EventAlpha · Daily Intelligence Brief
Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 5 Sept 2026, 20:14 UTC
Polymarket · 7,803 markets · Synced 6 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
Produced by EventAlpha's automated editorial system. AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge. Review the methodology.
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EventAlpha Daily Brief — 2026-09-05 Israel closes its airspace by September 30? market up 8.5pp 1. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? (12%, -11.5pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by-october-31-2026-243896 2. Israel closes its airspace by...? (67%, -8.0pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/israel-closes-its-airspace-by-september-30-701690 3. Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? (36%, +6.0pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/tyler-robinson-convicted-of-homicide-734780 Full brief: https://www.theeventalpha.com/daily-brief/2026-09-05 Read-only. Not financial advice.
Continuity
Compared against the brief filed on 2026-09-04.
Markets appearing in today's brief but not in the previous edition.
What moved overnight
Primary discovery only: ≥5pp move, ≥$10K activity, ≥$1K liquidity. Named events and moves first — not category vibes.
4 active outcomes · source-grouped
12%
-11.5pp
October 31
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
October 31 moved -11.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 39.5pp, from 14% to 53%, between 20:01 and 21:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #1 of 40 candidates: -11.5pp move, $203K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
1 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
1 active outcomes · source-grouped
67%
-8.0pp
September 30
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
September 30 moved -8.0pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: rose 58.0pp from 9% to 67%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Recent activity was materially above current liquidity, supporting a real repricing rather than an isolated thin-market tick.
Ranked #2 of 40 candidates: -8.0pp move, $329K activity.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
3 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
36%
+6.0pp
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? moved +6.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 14.0pp, from 37% to 23%, between 20:01 and 21:00 UTC. The move was accompanied by substantial recent activity and adequate liquidity.
Ranked #3 of 40 candidates: +6.0pp move, $19K activity.
Weaker signals
Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
2 active outcomes · source-grouped
82%
+13.7pp
December 31, 2026
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
December 31, 2026 moved +13.7pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 12.0pp, from 68% to 80%, between 08:00 and 09:00 UTC. The structured price path makes the change worth checking.
Ranked #4 of 40 candidates: +13.7pp move, $2K activity.
Markets carried forward from the previous brief into today's edition.
Included because probability moved -8.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.1pp.
High activity
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
Markets featured in the previous brief that are not in today's edition.
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
Included because probability moved +3.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved +2.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Resolution watch: market is near-certain or awaiting resolution — not a fresh probability signal.
Resolution watch
AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge.
6 active outcomes · source-grouped
79%
+12.5pp
September 23
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
September 23 moved +12.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 21.0pp, from 74% to 53%, between 19:00 and 20:01 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #5 of 40 candidates: +12.5pp move, $2K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
2 active outcomes · source-grouped
45%
-11.5pp
Democratic Party
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Democratic Party moved -11.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 11.5pp, from 56% to 45%, between 22:00 and 23:00 UTC. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #6 of 40 candidates: -11.5pp move, $2K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
11%
-10.5pp
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. moved -10.5pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: fell 13.5pp from 25% to 11%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #7 of 40 candidates: -10.5pp move, $2K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
5 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
Probably noise
Exact credibility failures are shown so weak participation is not mistaken for signal.
15%
—
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Shown only to explain why EventAlpha would not put this on the overnight shortlist.
Probability or movement data is incomplete.
Failed primary floor: 24h move 0.0pp is below 5pp.
Ranked #38 of 40 candidates: $78K activity.
15%
—
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Shown only to explain why EventAlpha would not put this on the overnight shortlist.
Probability or movement data is incomplete.
Failed primary floor: 24h move 0.0pp is below 5pp.
Ranked #39 of 40 candidates: $66K activity.
2 active outcomes · source-grouped
100%
+8.6pp
Republican Party
Shown only to explain why EventAlpha would not put this on the overnight shortlist.
The probability is near an extreme, reducing discovery value.
Failed primary floor: 24h activity $4K is below $10K.
Ranked #40 of 40 candidates: +8.6pp move, $4K activity.