Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
OH-10 House Election Winner
2 active outcomes in this event
Mike Turner (R)
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Mike Turner (R) moved -18.5pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: fell 17.5pp from 81% to 64%, gradually rather than in one jump. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #8 of 40 moves reviewed: -18.5pp move, $1K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$1K traded in 24h$2K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 21 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 2 outcomes
Outcomes divergingSignal: Low
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
13 active outcomes in this event
↑$1.25T
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
↑$1.25T moved +11.5pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: rose 29.0pp from 65% to 94%, gradually rather than in one jump. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #9 of 40 moves reviewed: +11.5pp move, $3K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$3K traded in 24h$4K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 21 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 15 outcomes
- ↑$1.25T94% · +11.5pp
- ↓$500B3% · —
- ↑$1.5T18% · -4.5pp
- ↓$750B6% · -1.0pp
- ↓$600B3% · —
- ↑$5.0T2% · —
9 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Cause not yet reportedSignal: Medium
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?
1 active outcomes in this event
December 31
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
December 31 moved -11.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 10.0pp, from 18% to 8%, between 10:00 and 11:00 UTC. The move pushed the market close to a final outcome.
Ranked #10 of 40 moves reviewed: -11.0pp move, $2K activity.
$2K traded in 24h$2K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 21 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 2 outcomes
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?
16 active outcomes in this event
↓ 65
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
↓ 65 moved -11.0pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: fell 14.0pp from 49% to 35%, gradually rather than in one jump. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #11 of 40 moves reviewed: -11.0pp move, $574 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$574 traded in 24h$4K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 21 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
- ↓ 6535% · -11.0pp
- ↑ 10044% · +5.0pp
- ↑ 11026% · +9.5pp
- ↑ 13010% · +2.5pp
- ↓ 203% · —
- ↑ 2003% · —
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
22 more outcomes in this event are not shown here.