Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
16 active outcomes in this event
Raphaël Glucksmann
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Raphaël Glucksmann moved +29.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 20.0pp, from 60% to 80%, between 16:00 and 17:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #7 of 40 moves reviewed: +29.0pp move, $6K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$6K traded in 24h$17K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 12 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
30 more outcomes in this event are not shown here.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Low
Ethereal FDV above ___ one day after launch?
11 active outcomes in this event
$25M
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
$25M moved -22.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 17.5pp, from 61% to 43%, between 02:00 and 03:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #8 of 40 moves reviewed: -22.5pp move, $514 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$514 traded in 24h$1K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 12 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 11 outcomes
- $25M38% · -22.5pp
- $100M18% · -9.0pp
- $200M21% · -3.5pp
- $600M5% · -0.05pp
- $50M32% · -2.5pp
- $500M6% · —
5 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Pro Football: Team to Make Postseason
16 active outcomes in this event
Chicago Bears
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Chicago Bears moved -16.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 9.0pp, from 65% to 56%, between 17:00 and 18:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #9 of 40 moves reviewed: -16.5pp move, $507 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$507 traded in 24h$8K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 12 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
16 more outcomes in this event are not shown here.
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
Pro Football: NFC West Champion
4 active outcomes in this event
San Francisco 49ers
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
San Francisco 49ers moved +13.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 11.5pp, from 40% to 52%, between 23:00 and 00:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #10 of 40 moves reviewed: +13.0pp move, $2K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$2K traded in 24h$7K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 12 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 4 outcomes