Politics
MediumFresh
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $2.1MCloses 31 Dec 2026
Category
Politics
Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence.
3,651 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 360 matching politics markets.
Showing 1-36 of 360 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Politics
MediumFresh
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
90%
Vol $1.6MCloses 29 Jul 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
0%
-0.05ppVol $1.3MCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
0%
+0.1ppVol $907KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.3pp.
High activity
10%
+0.3ppVol $760KCloses 29 Jul 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Resolution watch: market is near-certain and close to deadline — not a fresh probability signal.
Resolution watch
1%
-0.1ppVol $725KCloses 29 Jul 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $541KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $395KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
0%
+0.05ppVol $389KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.3pp).
Stable consensus
0%
-0.3ppVol $354KCloses —
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $304KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $296KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
0%
-0.1ppVol $282KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
0%
-0.1ppVol $272KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $214KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $203KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $200KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.3pp.
High activity
3%
-0.3ppVol $193KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $183KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.6pp.
High activity
5%
-0.6ppVol $164KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Resolution watch: market is near-certain and close to deadline — not a fresh probability signal.
Resolution watch
0%
Vol $159KCloses 29 Jul 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $133KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $131KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $116KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Resolution watch: market is near-certain and close to deadline — not a fresh probability signal.
Resolution watch
0%
Vol $112KCloses 29 Jul 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $104KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
HighFresh
Trump out as President before 2027?
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
8%
+1.0ppVol $80KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?
Included because probability moved -3.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
4%
-3.0ppVol $68KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumStale data
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
-5.0ppVol $61KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
13%
-1.0ppVol $55KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
0%
-0.1ppVol $54KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.7pp.
High activity
4%
+0.7ppVol $54KCloses 18 Aug 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $50KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.1pp.
High activity
1%
-0.1ppVol $46KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
1%
Vol $42KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.2pp.
High activity
2%
+0.2ppVol $42KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Avg 24h move 1.7pp372 markets with notable movementCombined activity $397.4M
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