Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Outcomes divergingSignal: Low
New Zealand Election: 3rd Place
6 active outcomes in this event
New Zealand First Party
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
New Zealand First Party moved -26.5pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: fell 26.5pp from 49% to 22%, gradually rather than in one jump. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #9 of 40 moves reviewed: -26.5pp move, $937 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$937 traded in 24h$1K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 7 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 6 outcomes
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
How many Democratic House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
2 active outcomes in this event
10-12
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
10-12 moved +18.3pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 24.3pp, from 65% to 89%, between 12:00 and 13:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #10 of 40 moves reviewed: +18.3pp move, $2K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$2K traded in 24h$3K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 7 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 6 outcomes
- 10-1296% · +18.3pp
- 13-154% · -4.0pp
- >15(resolved)0% · -1.6pp
- 4-6(resolved)0% · -0.2pp
- 7-9(resolved)0% · -2.7pp
- <3(resolved)0% · —
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
4 active outcomes in this event
December 31, 2027
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
December 31, 2027 moved +14.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 16.0pp, from 19% to 35%, between 03:00 and 04:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #11 of 40 moves reviewed: +14.5pp move, $832 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$832 traded in 24h$4K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 7 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 10 outcomes
4 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?
6 active outcomes in this event
AUR
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
AUR moved -13.2pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 7.6pp, from 22% to 15%, between 04:00 and 05:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #12 of 40 moves reviewed: -13.2pp move, $1K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$1K traded in 24h$1K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 7 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 6 outcomes
- AUR9% · -13.2pp
- UDMR25% · -3.0pp
- USR21% · -1.1pp
- PNL42% · —
- PSD80% · -1.2pp
- SOS2% · +0.1pp