Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?
16 active outcomes in this event
Other
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Other moved +23.6pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 23.8pp, from 12% to 36%, between 12:00 and 13:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #6 of 40 moves reviewed: +23.6pp move, $1K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$1K traded in 24h$2K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 9 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
- Other36% · +23.6pp
- PSD + PNL + UDMR11% · -2.6pp
- PSD + UDMR7% · -5.3pp
- PSD14% · +1.6pp
- PSD + AUR3% · +0.3pp
- PNL + USR2% · -0.3pp
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
16 more outcomes in this event are not shown here.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Low
Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?
10 active outcomes in this event
$100M
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
$100M moved +23.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 19.5pp, from 37% to 56%, between 17:00 and 18:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #7 of 40 moves reviewed: +23.5pp move, $1K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$1K traded in 24h$2K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 9 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 10 outcomes
- $100M60% · +23.5pp
- $600M25% · -4.5pp
- $900M11% · +2.2pp
- $700M22% · -0.5pp
- $300M42% · +4.0pp
- $1.5B4% · -0.4pp
4 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
Crude Oil all time high by...?
2 active outcomes in this event
March 31, 2027
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
March 31, 2027 moved -20.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 15.0pp, from 35% to 20%, between 11:00 and 12:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #8 of 40 moves reviewed: -20.5pp move, $2K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$2K traded in 24h$9K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 9 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 5 outcomes
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
3 active outcomes in this event
October 31
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
October 31 moved -19.0pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: fell 24.0pp from 45% to 21%, gradually rather than in one jump. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #9 of 40 moves reviewed: -19.0pp move, $10K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$10K traded in 24h$481K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 9 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 13 outcomes
7 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.