Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Which bills will become law in 2026?
14 active outcomes in this event
AI-chip export licensing
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
AI-chip export licensing moved -30.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 19.0pp, from 13% to 32%, between 11:00 and 12:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #7 of 40 moves reviewed: -30.0pp move, $710 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$710 traded in 24h$2K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 7 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 15 outcomes
9 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
Party of Next Prime Minister of Romania?
6 active outcomes in this event
Independent/Technocrat
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Independent/Technocrat moved +17.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 13.5pp, from 69% to 82%, between 10:00 and 11:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #8 of 40 moves reviewed: +17.5pp move, $1K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$1K traded in 24h$2K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 7 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 6 outcomes
- Independent/Technocrat87% · +17.5pp
- PSD11% · +0.8pp
- USR0% · —
- AUR2% · -1.3pp
- UDMR0% · —
- PNL2% · -1.6pp
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
What price will Uniswap hit in 2026?
7 active outcomes in this event
↑ 14.00
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
↑ 14.00 moved -17.2pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 15.8pp, from 33% to 17%, between 13:00 and 14:29 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #9 of 40 moves reviewed: -17.2pp move, $1K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$1K traded in 24h$58K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 7 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 15 outcomes
- ↓ 4.0031% · +12.0pp
- ↑ 14.0022% · -17.2pp
- ↑ 15.5013% · -7.0pp
- ↑ 12.5066% · +6.0pp
- ↑ 11.0059% · -13.5pp
- ↓ 3.005% · -1.9pp
9 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
MLB: 2026 National League Champion
4 active outcomes in this event
Los Angeles Dodgers
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Los Angeles Dodgers moved +13.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 10.0pp, from 39% to 49%, between 23:00 and 00:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #10 of 40 moves reviewed: +13.0pp move, $2K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$2K traded in 24h$8K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 7 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 15 outcomes
9 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.