Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Deadline clusterSignal: Low
Ethereal FDV above ___ one day after launch?
11 active outcomes · source-grouped
$25M
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
$25M moved -25.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 17.0pp, from 64% to 47%, between 17:00 and 18:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #17 of 40 candidates: -25.5pp move, $503 activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Primary market 24h activity $503Grouped event 24h activity $613Liquidity per outcomeUpdated 22 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTCUnexplained repricing
Compare 11 source-linked outcomes
- $25M40% · -25.5pp
- $50M29% · -19.5pp
- $100M17% · -2.5pp
- $600M4% · —
- $500M7% · —
- $2B3% · —
5 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
Relative mispricingSignal: Low
Party of Next Prime Minister of Romania?
6 active outcomes · source-grouped
PNL
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
PNL moved -16.6pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 15.5pp, from 24% to 9%, between 11:00 and 12:00 UTC. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #18 of 40 candidates: -16.6pp move, $6K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Primary market 24h activity $6KGrouped event 24h activity $7KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 22 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTCUnexplained repricing
Compare 6 source-linked outcomes
- PNL8% · -16.6pp
- Independent/Technocrat40% · +6.5pp
- UDMR0% · -0.3pp
- PSD27% · +0.8pp
- USR0% · —
- AUR2% · +0.05pp
Deadline clusterSignal: Medium
When will Bitcoin hit $150k?
5 active outcomes · source-grouped
by December 31, 2027
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
by December 31, 2027 moved +16.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 13.0pp, from 31% to 44%, between 12:00 and 13:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #19 of 40 candidates: +16.0pp move, $501 activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Primary market 24h activity $501Grouped event 24h activity $342KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 22 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTCUnexplained repricing
Compare 9 source-linked outcomes
3 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
Relative mispricingSignal: Medium
Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?
2 active outcomes · source-grouped
September 30
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
September 30 moved -14.9pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: fell 16.9pp from 20% to 3%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #20 of 40 candidates: -14.9pp move, $555 activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Primary market 24h activity $555Grouped event 24h activity $1KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 22 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTCUnexplained repricing
Compare 5 source-linked outcomes