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EventAlpha · Daily Intelligence Brief
Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 16 Aug 2026, 18:38 UTC
Polymarket · 7,705 markets · Synced 14 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
Produced by EventAlpha's automated editorial system. AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge. Review the methodology.
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EventAlpha Daily Brief — 2026-08-16 Political markets see significant shifts today. 1. Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30? (79%, -11.9pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-any-ai-model-reach-1520-overall-arena-score-by-september-30-2026-831352 2. Pro Football: 2026 MVP Winner (15%, +10.8pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-caleb-williams-win-the-2026-nfl-mvp-747730 3. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place (47%, -8.8pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-augusto-cury-finish-in-third-place-in-the-first-round-of-the-2026-brazilian-365904 Full brief: https://www.theeventalpha.com/daily-brief/2026-08-16 Read-only. Not financial advice.
Continuity
Compared against the brief filed on 2026-08-15.
Markets appearing in today's brief but not in the previous edition.
What moved overnight
Primary discovery only: ≥5pp move, ≥$10K activity, ≥$1K liquidity. Named events and moves first — not category vibes.
4 active outcomes · source-grouped
79%
-11.9pp
1520
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
1520 moved -11.9pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 17.0pp, from 89% to 72%, between 15:00 and 16:00 UTC. The move was accompanied by substantial recent activity and adequate liquidity.
Ranked #2 of 40 candidates: -11.9pp move, $13K activity.
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
15%
+10.8pp
Caleb Williams
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Caleb Williams moved +10.8pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 8.5pp, from 10% to 18%, between 22:00 and 23:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #3 of 40 candidates: +10.8pp move, $18K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
13 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
47%
-8.8pp
Augusto Cury
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Augusto Cury moved -8.8pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 5.3pp, from 53% to 47%, between 12:00 and 13:00 UTC. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #4 of 40 candidates: -8.8pp move, $20K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
3 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
69%
+8.0pp
↑ 85,000
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
↑ 85,000 moved +8.0pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: rose 7.0pp from 62% to 69%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #5 of 40 candidates: +8.0pp move, $31K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
30 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
5 active outcomes · source-grouped
14%
-7.0pp
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? moved -7.0pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: fell 7.0pp from 21% to 14%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #6 of 40 candidates: -7.0pp move, $3.8M activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Different deadline
Weaker signals
Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
14 active outcomes · source-grouped
4%
-52.0pp
Tom Aspinall
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Tom Aspinall moved -52.0pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: fell 52.5pp from 56% to 4%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #1 of 40 candidates: -52.0pp move, $1K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
8 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
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Markets carried forward from the previous brief into today's edition.
Markets featured in the previous brief that are not in today's edition.
Included because probability moved +5.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
Resolution update: resolved market — movement reflects settlement, not fresh repricing.
Resolution update
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.1pp.
High activity
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.1pp.
High activity
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge.
9 active outcomes · source-grouped
4%
-20.6pp
2.0–2.4%
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
2.0–2.4% moved -20.6pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 20.7pp, from 25% to 4%, between 12:00 and 13:00 UTC. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #9 of 40 candidates: -20.6pp move, $7K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
4 active outcomes · source-grouped
28%
-13.0pp
September 30
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
September 30 moved -13.0pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: fell 19.5pp from 47% to 28%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #10 of 40 candidates: -13.0pp move, $573 activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
3 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
6 active outcomes · source-grouped
20%
-11.5pp
$500M
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
$500M moved -11.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 7.5pp, from 32% to 24%, between 13:00 and 14:01 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #11 of 40 candidates: -11.5pp move, $2K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Probably noise
Exact credibility failures are shown so weak participation is not mistaken for signal.
17%
—
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Shown only to explain why EventAlpha would not put this on the overnight shortlist.
Probability or movement data is incomplete.
Failed primary floor: 24h move 0.0pp is below 5pp.
Ranked #40 of 40 candidates: $197K activity.