Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
16 active outcomes in this event
Raphaël Glucksmann
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Raphaël Glucksmann moved +24.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 20.0pp, from 60% to 80%, between 16:00 and 17:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #5 of 40 moves reviewed: +24.5pp move, $6K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$6K traded in 24h$16K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 11 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
30 more outcomes in this event are not shown here.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?
7 active outcomes in this event
Juan Reyes Mejía González
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Juan Reyes Mejía González moved -14.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 9.0pp, from 21% to 12%, between 23:00 and 00:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #6 of 40 moves reviewed: -14.0pp move, $509 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$509 traded in 24h$1K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 11 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 8 outcomes
2 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Cause not yet reportedSignal: Medium
MLS: 2026 Golden Boot Winner
16 active outcomes in this event
Lionel Messi
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Lionel Messi moved +13.1pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 15.3pp, from 81% to 96%, between 02:00 and 03:00 UTC. The move pushed the market close to a final outcome.
Ranked #7 of 40 moves reviewed: +13.1pp move, $3K activity.
$3K traded in 24h$5K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 11 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
- Lionel Messi94% · +13.1pp
- Petar Musa3% · +0.05pp
- Sam Surridge1% · +0.3pp
- Milan Iloski0% · -0.8pp
- Brian White1% · -0.6pp
- Kévin Denkey1% · -0.5pp
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
12 more outcomes in this event are not shown here.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Gemini 4.0 released by...?
8 active outcomes in this event
October 13
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
October 13 moved -13.0pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: fell 23.5pp from 52% to 29%, gradually rather than in one jump. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #8 of 40 moves reviewed: -13.0pp move, $10K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$10K traded in 24h$57K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 11 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
1 more outcomes in this event are not shown here.