Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Outcomes divergingSignal: Low
Who will be UFC Middleweight champion at the end of 2026?
12 active outcomes in this event
Nassourdine Imavov
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Nassourdine Imavov moved -35.1pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 26.5pp, from 31% to 5%, between 01:00 and 02:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #13 of 40 moves reviewed: -35.1pp move, $4K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$4K traded in 24h$9K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 4 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 12 outcomes
6 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Outcomes divergingSignal: Low
Next Croat President of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
3 active outcomes in this event
Zdenko Lučić
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Zdenko Lučić moved +21.7pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 18.9pp, from 6% to 25%, between 00:00 and 01:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #14 of 40 moves reviewed: +21.7pp move, $4K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$4K traded in 24h$7K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 4 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 3 outcomes
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
MLB: 2026 American League Champion
4 active outcomes in this event
New York Yankees
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
New York Yankees moved -16.5pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: fell 20.5pp from 38% to 17%, gradually rather than in one jump. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #15 of 40 moves reviewed: -16.5pp move, $997 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$997 traded in 24h$29K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 4 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 15 outcomes
9 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Broad consensus shiftSignal: Low
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?
1 active outcomes in this event
December 31
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
December 31 moved -15.0pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: fell 16.0pp from 42% to 26%, gradually rather than in one jump. The move came with substantial trading activity and adequate liquidity.
Ranked #16 of 40 moves reviewed: -15.0pp move, $6K activity.
$6K traded in 24h$6K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 4 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 3 outcomes