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EventAlpha · Daily Intelligence Brief
Friday, 4 September 2026 · 4 Sept 2026, 04:12 UTC
Polymarket · 7,874 markets · Synced 4 Sept 2026, 06:03 UTC
Produced by EventAlpha's automated editorial system. AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge. Review the methodology.
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EventAlpha Daily Brief — 2026-09-04 Ethereum market dipped 18pp 1. What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? (80%, +17.0pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/event/bitcoin-price-before-2027 2. What price will Ethereum hit in 2026? (56%, -16.5pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-ethereum-dip-to-2-250-by-december-31-2026-866000 3. Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? (60%, +12.0pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting-252244 Full brief: https://www.theeventalpha.com/daily-brief/2026-09-04 Read-only. Not financial advice.
Continuity
Compared against the brief filed on 2026-09-03.
Markets appearing in today's brief but not in the previous edition.
What moved overnight
Primary discovery only: ≥5pp move, ≥$10K activity, ≥$1K liquidity. Named events and moves first — not category vibes.
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
80%
+17.0pp
↑ 85,000
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
↑ 85,000 moved +17.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 10.5pp, from 66% to 76%, between 14:03 and 15:01 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #4 of 40 candidates: +17.0pp move, $10K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
30 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
56%
-16.5pp
↓ 2,250
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
↓ 2,250 moved -16.5pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: fell 22.5pp from 79% to 56%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #5 of 40 candidates: -16.5pp move, $127K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
14 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
5 active outcomes · source-grouped
60%
+12.0pp
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? moved +12.0pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: rose 21.0pp from 39% to 60%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #6 of 40 candidates: +12.0pp move, $1.8M activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Different deadline
Different deadline
8 active outcomes · source-grouped
23%
+12.0pp
SPD
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
SPD moved +12.0pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: rose 12.0pp from 11% to 23%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #8 of 40 candidates: +12.0pp move, $25K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
5 active outcomes · source-grouped
98%
+10.3pp
September 15, 2026
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
September 15, 2026 moved +10.3pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 65.5pp, from 17% to 83%, between 16:00 and 17:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #9 of 40 candidates: +10.3pp move, $103K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
7 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
Weaker signals
Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
2 active outcomes · source-grouped
8%
-75.5pp
Republican Party
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Republican Party moved -75.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 44.0pp, from 58% to 14%, between 22:03 and 23:01 UTC. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #1 of 40 candidates: -75.5pp move, $5K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Markets carried forward from the previous brief into today's edition.
Included because probability moved -16.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved +12.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved +12.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved -12.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved +10.3pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Resolution watch: market is near-certain or awaiting resolution — not a fresh probability signal.
Resolution watch
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
Markets featured in the previous brief that are not in today's edition.
Included because probability moved -2.6pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved +17.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Resolution watch: market is near-certain or awaiting resolution — not a fresh probability signal.
Resolution watch
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge.
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
17%
-69.5pp
Missouri
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Missouri moved -69.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 56.5pp, from 85% to 28%, between 22:03 and 23:01 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #2 of 40 candidates: -69.5pp move, $2K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
6 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
1 active outcomes · source-grouped
74%
+67.0pp
October 31
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
October 31 moved +67.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 81.0pp, from 7% to 88%, between 11:00 and 12:05 UTC. Recent activity was materially above current liquidity, supporting a real repricing rather than an isolated thin-market tick.
Ranked #3 of 40 candidates: +67.0pp move, $2K activity.
1 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
15 active outcomes · source-grouped
96%
+36.5pp
↑ 1000
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
↑ 1000 moved +36.5pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: rose 33.5pp from 63% to 96%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #13 of 40 candidates: +36.5pp move, $1K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
8 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
Probably noise
Exact credibility failures are shown so weak participation is not mistaken for signal.
2 active outcomes · source-grouped
1%
—
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Shown only to explain why EventAlpha would not put this on the overnight shortlist.
Probability or movement data is incomplete.
Failed primary floor: 24h move 0.0pp is below 5pp.
Ranked #39 of 40 candidates: $191K activity.
10 active outcomes · source-grouped
100%
+34.9pp
↑ 6.50
Shown only to explain why EventAlpha would not put this on the overnight shortlist.
The probability is near an extreme, reducing discovery value.
Failed primary floor: 24h activity $814 is below $10K.
Ranked #40 of 40 candidates: +34.9pp move, $814 activity.