Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
MLB: 2026 American League Champion
2 active outcomes in this event
Tampa Bay Rays
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Tampa Bay Rays moved +24.4pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: rose 41.0pp from 38% to 79%, gradually rather than in one jump. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #5 of 40 moves reviewed: +24.4pp move, $691 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$691 traded in 24h$2K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 19 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 15 outcomes
9 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
When will Bitcoin hit $150k?
5 active outcomes in this event
by December 31, 2027
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
by December 31, 2027 moved +20.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 21.5pp, from 21% to 42%, between 21:00 and 22:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #6 of 40 moves reviewed: +20.5pp move, $806 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$806 traded in 24h$337K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 19 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 9 outcomes
3 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Low
Pro Football: Team to Make Postseason
16 active outcomes in this event
Los Angeles Rams
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Los Angeles Rams moved -20.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 13.0pp, from 72% to 59%, between 22:00 and 23:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #7 of 40 moves reviewed: -20.5pp move, $773 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$773 traded in 24h$17K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 19 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
16 more outcomes in this event are not shown here.
Cause not yet reportedSignal: Medium
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? moved -12.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 8.0pp, from 28% to 20%, between 16:00 and 17:00 UTC. The shape of the price move makes it worth a closer look.
Ranked #8 of 40 moves reviewed: -12.0pp move, $3K activity.
$3K traded in 24hLiquidity $25KUpdated 19 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTCCause not yet reported