Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Unexplained investigationSignal: Low
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? moved +40.0pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: rose 44.5pp from 25% to 70%; no single sharp inflection was detected. The structured price path makes the change worth checking.
Ranked #4 of 40 candidates: +40.0pp move, $2K activity.
Primary market 24h activity $2KLiquidity $3KUpdated 1 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTCUnexplained repricing
Deadline clusterSignal: Medium
Concrete FDV above ___ one day after launch?
7 active outcomes · source-grouped
$300M
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
$300M moved +37.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 23.0pp, from 44% to 67%, between 10:00 and 11:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #5 of 40 candidates: +37.0pp move, $2K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Primary market 24h activity $2KGrouped event 24h activity $30KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 1 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTCUnexplained repricing
Compare 7 source-linked outcomes
- $300M89% · +37.0pp
- $50M99% · +0.2pp
- $1B0% · -2.2pp
- $800M1% · -7.5pp
- $100M99% · +0.05pp
- $200M98% · +14.8pp
1 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
Deadline clusterSignal: Medium
Abstract FDV above ___ one day after launch?
9 active outcomes · source-grouped
$200M
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
$200M moved -19.0pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: fell 19.0pp from 43% to 24%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #6 of 40 candidates: -19.0pp move, $3K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Primary market 24h activity $3KGrouped event 24h activity $6KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 1 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTCUnexplained repricing
Compare 9 source-linked outcomes
- $200M24% · -19.0pp
- $1B10% · -4.5pp
- $800M10% · -4.5pp
- $600M13% · -6.0pp
- $2B7% · -2.0pp
- $400M16% · -10.5pp
3 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
Deadline clusterSignal: Medium
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
15 active outcomes · source-grouped
≥ 4.5%
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
≥ 4.5% moved -18.6pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: fell 24.9pp from 49% to 24%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #7 of 40 candidates: -18.6pp move, $1K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Primary market 24h activity $1KGrouped event 24h activity $2KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 1 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTCUnexplained repricing
Compare 15 source-linked outcomes
- ≥ 4.5%24% · -18.6pp
- 3.5%1% · -0.2pp
- 4.25%66% · +22.5pp
- 4.0%10% · -1.2pp
- 2.0%0% · —
- ≤1.0%0% · —
9 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.