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EventAlpha · Daily Intelligence Brief
Tuesday, 15 September 2026 · 15 Sept 2026, 04:36 UTC
Polymarket · 7,663 markets · Synced 15 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
Produced by EventAlpha's automated editorial system. AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge. Review the methodology.
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EventAlpha Daily Brief — 2026-09-15 Clarity Act market dropped 14.5pp 1. Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30? (75%, -14.6pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-any-ai-model-reach-1520-overall-arena-score-by-september-30-2026-831352 2. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? (19%, -9.0pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026-163699 3. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place (44%, -8.4pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-augusto-cury-finish-in-third-place-in-the-first-round-of-the-2026-brazilian-365904 Full brief: https://www.theeventalpha.com/daily-brief/2026-09-15 Read-only. Not financial advice.
Continuity
Compared against the brief filed on 2026-09-14.
Markets appearing in today's brief but not in the previous edition.
What moved overnight
Primary discovery only: ≥5pp move, ≥$10K activity, ≥$1K liquidity. Named events and moves first — not category vibes.
4 active outcomes · source-grouped
75%
-14.6pp
1520
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
1520 moved -14.6pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 17.0pp, from 89% to 72%, between 15:00 and 16:00 UTC. The move was accompanied by substantial recent activity and adequate liquidity.
Ranked #2 of 40 candidates: -14.6pp move, $12K activity.
19%
-9.0pp
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? moved -9.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 8.0pp, from 22% to 30%, between 02:00 and 03:00 UTC. Recent activity was materially above current liquidity, supporting a real repricing rather than an isolated thin-market tick.
Ranked #3 of 40 candidates: -9.0pp move, $1.2M activity.
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
44%
-8.4pp
Augusto Cury
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Augusto Cury moved -8.4pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: fell 12.1pp from 56% to 44%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #4 of 40 candidates: -8.4pp move, $22K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
3 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
5 active outcomes · source-grouped
13%
-8.0pp
No change
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
No change moved -8.0pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: fell 8.0pp from 21% to 13%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #5 of 40 candidates: -8.0pp move, $5.1M activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Different deadline
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
24%
+7.2pp
Lamine Yamal
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Lamine Yamal moved +7.2pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: rose 7.8pp from 16% to 24%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #7 of 40 candidates: +7.2pp move, $60K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
15 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
Weaker signals
Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
3 active outcomes · source-grouped
88%
+55.5pp
September 30, 2026
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
September 30, 2026 moved +55.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 24.0pp, from 39% to 63%, between 16:00 and 17:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #1 of 40 candidates: +55.5pp move, $589 activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
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Markets carried forward from the previous brief into today's edition.
Included because probability moved -14.6pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved -8.4pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved -8.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved +7.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved -15.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved +6.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.3pp.
High activity
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.2pp.
High activity
Markets featured in the previous brief that are not in today's edition.
Included because probability moved +3.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved +3.6pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved -2.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.8pp.
High activity
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.05pp.
High activity
AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge.
14 active outcomes · source-grouped
68%
+30.0pp
Ciryl Gane
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Ciryl Gane moved +30.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 44.0pp, from 38% to 82%, between 08:00 and 09:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #12 of 40 candidates: +30.0pp move, $3K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
8 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
9 active outcomes · source-grouped
5%
-20.0pp
2.0–2.4%
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
2.0–2.4% moved -20.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 20.7pp, from 25% to 4%, between 12:00 and 13:00 UTC. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #13 of 40 candidates: -20.0pp move, $8K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
6 active outcomes · source-grouped
17%
-15.0pp
$500M
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
$500M moved -15.0pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: fell 15.5pp from 32% to 17%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #14 of 40 candidates: -15.0pp move, $2K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Probably noise
Exact credibility failures are shown so weak participation is not mistaken for signal.
17%
—
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Shown only to explain why EventAlpha would not put this on the overnight shortlist.
Probability or movement data is incomplete.
Failed primary floor: 24h move 0.0pp is below 5pp.
Ranked #39 of 40 candidates: $128K activity.
18%
—
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Shown only to explain why EventAlpha would not put this on the overnight shortlist.
Probability or movement data is incomplete.
Failed primary floor: 24h move 0.0pp is below 5pp.
Ranked #40 of 40 candidates: $79K activity.