Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Cause not yet reportedSignal: Low
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by...?
1 active outcomes in this event
December 31
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
December 31 moved +45.5pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: rose 46.0pp from 26% to 72%, gradually rather than in one jump. The shape of the price move makes it worth a closer look.
Ranked #7 of 40 moves reviewed: +45.5pp move, $2K activity.
$2K traded in 24h$2K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 18 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 5 outcomes
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?
16 active outcomes in this event
Pete Buttigieg
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Pete Buttigieg moved +19.3pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 25.8pp, from 10% to 36%, between 02:00 and 03:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #10 of 40 moves reviewed: +19.3pp move, $2K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$2K traded in 24h$3K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 18 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
55 more outcomes in this event are not shown here.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Which bills will become law in 2026?
14 active outcomes in this event
FISA Section 702 reauthorization
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
FISA Section 702 reauthorization moved +13.0pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: rose 11.5pp from 13% to 25%, gradually rather than in one jump. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #11 of 40 moves reviewed: +13.0pp move, $568 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$568 traded in 24h$1K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 18 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 15 outcomes
9 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Low
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
15 active outcomes in this event
Below 4.6%
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Below 4.6% moved +12.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 10.0pp, from 12% to 22%, between 15:00 and 16:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #12 of 40 moves reviewed: +12.0pp move, $7K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$7K traded in 24h$43K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 18 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.