Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
16 active outcomes in this event
Raphaël Glucksmann
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Raphaël Glucksmann moved +25.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 20.0pp, from 60% to 80%, between 16:00 and 17:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #6 of 40 moves reviewed: +25.5pp move, $6K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$6K traded in 24h$16K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 12 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
30 more outcomes in this event are not shown here.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner
3 active outcomes in this event
Kuomintang (KMT)
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Kuomintang (KMT) moved +21.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 27.0pp, from 87% to 60%, between 02:00 and 03:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #7 of 40 moves reviewed: +21.5pp move, $7K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$7K traded in 24h$11K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 12 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 3 outcomes
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
14 active outcomes in this event
Kuwait
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Kuwait moved -17.6pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 19.3pp, from 7% to 26%, between 02:00 and 03:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #8 of 40 moves reviewed: -17.6pp move, $1K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$1K traded in 24h$41K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 12 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
- Kuwait9% · -17.6pp
- Afghanistan3% · +0.4pp
- Pakistan4% · -0.3pp
- Qatar3% · -1.2pp
- Tunisia6% · -2.0pp
- North Korea3% · +0.2pp
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Low
Ethereal FDV above ___ one day after launch?
11 active outcomes in this event
$25M
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
$25M moved -17.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 17.5pp, from 61% to 43%, between 02:00 and 03:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #9 of 40 moves reviewed: -17.5pp move, $514 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$514 traded in 24h$1K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 12 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 11 outcomes
- $25M43% · -17.5pp
- $100M20% · -7.0pp
- $200M20% · -4.5pp
- $600M5% · -0.1pp
- $50M32% · -2.0pp
- $500M6% · -0.5pp
5 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.