Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Low
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
4 active outcomes in this event
5.4%
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
5.4% moved -39.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 30.0pp, from 53% to 23%, between 01:00 and 02:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #8 of 40 moves reviewed: -39.0pp move, $8K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$8K traded in 24h$36K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 15 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 13 outcomes
- 5.4%27% · -39.0pp
- 5.5%21% · -19.1pp
- 6.0%6% · -0.3pp
- 5.7%13% · -3.5pp
- 4.3%(resolved)100% · +1.6pp
- 5.3%(resolved)100% · +14.4pp
7 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Will StandX launch a token by ___?
2 active outcomes in this event
June 30, 2027
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
June 30, 2027 moved -33.7pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: fell 69.9pp from 73% to 3%, gradually rather than in one jump. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #9 of 40 moves reviewed: -33.7pp move, $9K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$9K traded in 24h$13K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 15 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 3 outcomes
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?
16 active outcomes in this event
PSD
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
PSD moved +19.6pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: rose 66.5pp from 22% to 89%, gradually rather than in one jump. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #10 of 40 moves reviewed: +19.6pp move, $4K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$4K traded in 24h$8K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 15 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
- PSD89% · +19.6pp
- PSD + UDMR2% · -1.3pp
- Other2% · -10.7pp
- PSD + PNL + USR1% · -0.05pp
- PNL + UDMR + AUR1% · —
- PNL + AUR0% · —
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
16 more outcomes in this event are not shown here.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
5 active outcomes in this event
January 31, 2027
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
January 31, 2027 moved +11.5pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: rose 11.5pp from 17% to 28%, gradually rather than in one jump. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #11 of 40 moves reviewed: +11.5pp move, $4K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$4K traded in 24h$34K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 15 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 7 outcomes
1 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.