Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Low
Who will perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
13 active outcomes in this event
Post Malone
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Post Malone moved +67.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 69.5pp, from 10% to 79%, between 00:00 and 01:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #1 of 40 moves reviewed: +67.5pp move, $1K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$1K traded in 24h$10K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 12 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 13 outcomes
- Post Malone77% · +67.5pp
- Luke Combs17% · +5.0pp
- Kanye West22% · +18.4pp
- Jay Z65% · —
- Morgan Wallen17% · +6.0pp
- Harry Styles34% · +22.5pp
7 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
16 active outcomes in this event
Raphaël Glucksmann
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Raphaël Glucksmann moved +25.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 20.0pp, from 60% to 80%, between 16:00 and 17:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #6 of 40 moves reviewed: +25.5pp move, $6K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$6K traded in 24h$16K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 12 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
30 more outcomes in this event are not shown here.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
11 active outcomes in this event
$600M
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
$600M moved +13.5pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: rose 13.0pp from 68% to 81%, gradually rather than in one jump. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #7 of 40 moves reviewed: +13.5pp move, $6K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$6K traded in 24h$41K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 12 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 11 outcomes
- $600M81% · +13.5pp
- $300M92% · +5.5pp
- $500M83% · +7.0pp
- $400M87% · +6.0pp
- $50M98% · +1.2pp
- $1B43% · +7.8pp
5 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?
16 active outcomes in this event
Other
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Other moved -13.1pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 14.3pp, from 37% to 51%, between 15:00 and 16:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #8 of 40 moves reviewed: -13.1pp move, $1K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$1K traded in 24h$1K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 12 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
- Other27% · -13.1pp
- PSD15% · +1.8pp
- PSD + PNL + UDMR11% · —
- PSD + UDMR17% · +1.2pp
- USR + UDMR0% · —
- PSD + USR + UDMR5% · +0.8pp
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
16 more outcomes in this event are not shown here.