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EventAlpha · Daily Intelligence Brief
Friday, 11 September 2026 · 11 Sept 2026, 04:18 UTC
Polymarket · 7,683 markets · Synced 11 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
Produced by EventAlpha's automated editorial system. AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge. Review the methodology.
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EventAlpha Daily Brief — 2026-09-11 Aryna Sabalenka market surged 19.5pp 1. 2026 Women’s US Open Winner (Tennis) (57%, +20.0pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-aryna-sabalenka-win-the-2026-women-s-us-open-088652 2. Fed rate hike by...? (76%, +10.0pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/fed-rate-hike-by-october-2026-meeting-808548 3. Brazil Presidential Election (43%, -9.0pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-luiz-inacio-lula-da-silva-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election-601819 Full brief: https://www.theeventalpha.com/daily-brief/2026-09-11 Read-only. Not financial advice.
Continuity
Compared against the brief filed on 2026-09-10.
Markets appearing in today's brief but not in the previous edition.
What moved overnight
Primary discovery only: ≥5pp move, ≥$10K activity, ≥$1K liquidity. Named events and moves first — not category vibes.
2 active outcomes · source-grouped
57%
+20.0pp
Aryna Sabalenka
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Aryna Sabalenka moved +20.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 25.5pp, from 35% to 60%, between 00:00 and 01:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #1 of 40 candidates: +20.0pp move, $79K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
50 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
2 active outcomes · source-grouped
76%
+10.0pp
October Meeting
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
October Meeting moved +10.0pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: rose 11.0pp from 65% to 76%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #2 of 40 candidates: +10.0pp move, $42K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Different deadline
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
43%
-9.0pp
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva moved -9.0pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: fell 10.0pp from 53% to 43%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #3 of 40 candidates: -9.0pp move, $334K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
3 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
65%
+8.5pp
↓ 70,000
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
↓ 70,000 moved +8.5pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: rose 9.0pp from 56% to 65%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #4 of 40 candidates: +8.5pp move, $21K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
30 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
8 active outcomes · source-grouped
22%
-7.5pp
CDU
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
CDU moved -7.5pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: fell 6.5pp from 29% to 22%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #5 of 40 candidates: -7.5pp move, $24K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Weaker signals
Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
2 active outcomes · source-grouped
95%
+39.0pp
Emanuel Cleaver (D)
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Emanuel Cleaver (D) moved +39.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 24.5pp, from 62% to 86%, between 14:00 and 15:00 UTC. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #12 of 40 candidates: +39.0pp move, $607 activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
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Markets carried forward from the previous brief into today's edition.
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
Markets featured in the previous brief that are not in today's edition.
Included because probability moved -7.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Resolution update: resolved market — movement reflects settlement, not fresh repricing.
Resolution update
Included because probability moved +2.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved -9.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.2pp.
High activity
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.4pp).
Stable consensus
Included because probability moved -9.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge.
6 active outcomes · source-grouped
95%
+29.5pp
5.0%
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
5.0% moved +29.5pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: rose 55.5pp from 39% to 95%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #13 of 40 candidates: +29.5pp move, $9K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
27%
+21.5pp
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? moved +21.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 21.5pp, from 5% to 27%, between 05:00 and 06:00 UTC. Recent activity was materially above current liquidity, supporting a real repricing rather than an isolated thin-market tick.
Ranked #14 of 40 candidates: +21.5pp move, $7K activity.
4 active outcomes · source-grouped
65%
+20.7pp
T1 Esports Academy
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
T1 Esports Academy moved +20.7pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: rose 22.4pp from 43% to 65%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #15 of 40 candidates: +20.7pp move, $1K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
4 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
Probably noise
Exact credibility failures are shown so weak participation is not mistaken for signal.
No qualifying events in this data window.