Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
NC-09 House Election Winner
2 active outcomes in this event
Richard Ojeda (D)
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Richard Ojeda (D) moved +28.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 25.0pp, from 23% to 48%, between 09:00 and 10:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #15 of 40 moves reviewed: +28.5pp move, $2K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$2K traded in 24h$4K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 22 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 2 outcomes
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
WNBA: 2026 Champion
2 active outcomes in this event
Atlanta Dream
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Atlanta Dream moved +21.0pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: rose 21.5pp from 57% to 78%, gradually rather than in one jump. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #16 of 40 moves reviewed: +21.0pp move, $2K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$2K traded in 24h$13K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 22 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 15 outcomes
9 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Broad consensus shiftSignal: Low
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by...?
1 active outcomes in this event
December 31
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
December 31 moved +17.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 11.0pp, from 18% to 29%, between 21:00 and 22:00 UTC. The move came with substantial trading activity and adequate liquidity.
Ranked #17 of 40 moves reviewed: +17.5pp move, $8K activity.
$8K traded in 24h$8K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 22 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 3 outcomes
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
AZ-02 House Election Winner
2 active outcomes in this event
Eli Crane (R)
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Eli Crane (R) moved -14.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 8.5pp, from 73% to 65%, between 04:00 and 05:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #18 of 40 moves reviewed: -14.0pp move, $1K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$1K traded in 24h$5K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 22 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 2 outcomes