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EventAlpha · Daily Intelligence Brief
Saturday, 1 August 2026 · 1 Aug 2026, 19:20 UTC
Polymarket · 7,685 markets · Synced 16 Sept 2026, 01:00 UTC
Produced by EventAlpha's automated editorial system. AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge. Review the methodology.
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EventAlpha Daily Brief — 2026-08-01 Political markets see notable shifts today. 1. Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? (8%, -24.5pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/alexandre-de-moraes-out-as-brazil-supreme-court-justice-544795 2. What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? (56%, -12.0pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/event/bitcoin-price-before-2027 3. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? (5%, -11.8pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026-163699 Full brief: https://www.theeventalpha.com/daily-brief/2026-08-01 Read-only. Not financial advice.
Continuity
Compared against the brief filed on 2026-07-31.
Markets appearing in today's brief but not in the previous edition.
What moved overnight
Primary discovery only: ≥5pp move, ≥$10K activity, ≥$1K liquidity. Named events and moves first — not category vibes.
8%
-24.5pp
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? moved -24.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 14.5pp, from 30% to 16%, between 14:00 and 15:00 UTC. The move was accompanied by substantial recent activity and adequate liquidity.
Ranked #1 of 40 candidates: -24.5pp move, $18K activity.
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
56%
-12.0pp
↑ 85,000
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
↑ 85,000 moved -12.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 6.5pp, from 70% to 77%, between 18:00 and 19:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #2 of 40 candidates: -12.0pp move, $24K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
30 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
5%
-11.8pp
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? moved -11.8pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 13.5pp, from 18% to 5%, between 18:00 and 19:00 UTC. Recent activity was materially above current liquidity, supporting a real repricing rather than an isolated thin-market tick.
Ranked #3 of 40 candidates: -11.8pp move, $3.3M activity.
4 active outcomes · source-grouped
8%
-7.5pp
September 30
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
September 30 moved -7.5pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: fell 8.5pp from 17% to 8%; no single sharp inflection was detected. The move was accompanied by substantial recent activity and adequate liquidity.
Ranked #4 of 40 candidates: -7.5pp move, $17K activity.
1 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
17%
+7.0pp
US recession by end of 2026?
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
US recession by end of 2026? moved +7.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 14.0pp, from 12% to 26%, between 20:00 and 21:00 UTC. Recent activity was materially above current liquidity, supporting a real repricing rather than an isolated thin-market tick.
Ranked #5 of 40 candidates: +7.0pp move, $87K activity.
Weaker signals
Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
10 active outcomes · source-grouped
46%
+26.5pp
↓$30B
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
↓$30B moved +26.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 18.5pp, from 20% to 38%, between 17:00 and 18:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #9 of 40 candidates: +26.5pp move, $1K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
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Markets carried forward from the previous brief into today's edition.
Included because probability moved +5.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
Markets featured in the previous brief that are not in today's edition.
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.4pp).
Stable consensus
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
Included because probability moved -3.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved -1.5pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
Resolution watch: market is near-certain or awaiting resolution — not a fresh probability signal.
Resolution watch
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.3pp.
High activity
AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge.
15 active outcomes · source-grouped
74%
+19.0pp
Delcy Rodríguez
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Delcy Rodríguez moved +19.0pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: rose 49.0pp from 25% to 74%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #10 of 40 candidates: +19.0pp move, $2K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
10 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
14 active outcomes · source-grouped
79%
+19.0pp
↑$1.0T
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
↑$1.0T moved +19.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 8.0pp, from 64% to 72%, between 22:00 and 23:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #11 of 40 candidates: +19.0pp move, $2K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
6 active outcomes · source-grouped
51%
+17.5pp
June 30, 2027
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
June 30, 2027 moved +17.5pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: rose 17.5pp from 34% to 51%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #12 of 40 candidates: +17.5pp move, $5K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
1 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
Probably noise
Exact credibility failures are shown so weak participation is not mistaken for signal.
17%
—
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Shown only to explain why EventAlpha would not put this on the overnight shortlist.
Probability or movement data is incomplete.
Failed primary floor: 24h move 0.0pp is below 5pp.
Ranked #38 of 40 candidates: $250K activity.
2 active outcomes · source-grouped
87%
—
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Shown only to explain why EventAlpha would not put this on the overnight shortlist.
Probability or movement data is incomplete.
Failed primary floor: 24h move 0.0pp is below 5pp.
Ranked #39 of 40 candidates: $77K activity.
3 active outcomes · source-grouped
100%
+39.0pp
September 30, 2026
Shown only to explain why EventAlpha would not put this on the overnight shortlist.
The probability is near an extreme, reducing discovery value.
Failed primary floor: 24h activity $9K is below $10K.
Ranked #40 of 40 candidates: +39.0pp move, $9K activity.