Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
16 active outcomes in this event
Raphaël Glucksmann
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Raphaël Glucksmann moved +29.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 20.0pp, from 60% to 80%, between 16:00 and 17:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #7 of 40 moves reviewed: +29.0pp move, $6K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$6K traded in 24h$17K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 12 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
30 more outcomes in this event are not shown here.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Low
Ethereal FDV above ___ one day after launch?
11 active outcomes in this event
$25M
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
$25M moved -20.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 17.5pp, from 61% to 43%, between 02:00 and 03:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #8 of 40 moves reviewed: -20.0pp move, $514 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$514 traded in 24h$1K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 12 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 11 outcomes
- $25M41% · -20.0pp
- $100M19% · -8.0pp
- $200M20% · -4.0pp
- $600M5% · -0.05pp
- $50M32% · -3.0pp
- $500M6% · —
5 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Pro Football: Team to Make Postseason
16 active outcomes in this event
Chicago Bears
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Chicago Bears moved -16.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 9.0pp, from 65% to 56%, between 17:00 and 18:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #9 of 40 moves reviewed: -16.0pp move, $507 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$507 traded in 24h$8K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 12 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
16 more outcomes in this event are not shown here.
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?
16 active outcomes in this event
Other
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Other moved -13.6pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 14.3pp, from 37% to 51%, between 15:00 and 16:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #10 of 40 moves reviewed: -13.6pp move, $1K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$1K traded in 24h$1K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 12 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
- Other26% · -13.6pp
- PSD15% · +1.8pp
- PSD + UDMR17% · +0.6pp
- PSD + PNL + UDMR11% · —
- PSD + USR + UDMR4% · +0.8pp
- PSD + AUR7% · +1.0pp
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
16 more outcomes in this event are not shown here.