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EventAlpha · Daily Intelligence Brief
Saturday, 12 September 2026 · 12 Sept 2026, 11:36 UTC
Polymarket · 7,753 markets · Synced 12 Sept 2026, 12:00 UTC
Produced by EventAlpha's automated editorial system. AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge. Review the methodology.
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EventAlpha Daily Brief — 2026-09-12 Fed interest rate market shifted dramatically 1. Fed Decision in September? (20%, -21.0pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting-252244 2. Next Prime Minister of Sweden (28%, +9.0pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-ulf-kristersson-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-sweden-193093 3. Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30? (89%, -8.4pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-any-ai-model-reach-1520-overall-arena-score-by-september-30-2026-831352 Full brief: https://www.theeventalpha.com/daily-brief/2026-09-12 Read-only. Not financial advice.
Continuity
Compared against the brief filed on 2026-09-11.
Markets appearing in today's brief but not in the previous edition.
What moved overnight
Primary discovery only: ≥5pp move, ≥$10K activity, ≥$1K liquidity. Named events and moves first — not category vibes.
5 active outcomes · source-grouped
20%
-21.0pp
No change
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
No change moved -21.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 22.0pp, from 41% to 19%, between 12:11 and 13:00 UTC. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #1 of 40 candidates: -21.0pp move, $7.1M activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Different deadline
Different deadline
10 active outcomes · source-grouped
28%
+9.0pp
Ulf Kristersson
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Ulf Kristersson moved +9.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 7.5pp, from 22% to 29%, between 13:00 and 14:00 UTC. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #4 of 40 candidates: +9.0pp move, $96K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
4 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
4 active outcomes · source-grouped
89%
-8.4pp
1520
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
1520 moved -8.4pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 6.9pp, from 91% to 98%, between 15:00 and 16:00 UTC. The move was accompanied by substantial recent activity and adequate liquidity.
Ranked #5 of 40 candidates: -8.4pp move, $11K activity.
4 active outcomes · source-grouped
24%
-8.0pp
December 31
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
December 31 moved -8.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 5.0pp, from 28% to 33%, between 10:00 and 11:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #6 of 40 candidates: -8.0pp move, $50K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
6 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
2 active outcomes · source-grouped
57%
+6.5pp
Alexander Zverev
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Alexander Zverev moved +6.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 6.3pp, from 53% to 59%, between 21:00 and 22:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #7 of 40 candidates: +6.5pp move, $373K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
32 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
Weaker signals
Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
3 active outcomes · source-grouped
20%
-20.5pp
Pause–Pause–Pause
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Pause–Pause–Pause moved -20.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 21.5pp, from 40% to 19%, between 12:11 and 13:00 UTC. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #11 of 40 candidates: -20.5pp move, $4K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Different deadline
3 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
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Markets carried forward from the previous brief into today's edition.
Included because probability moved -21.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved +18.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved +14.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved -20.5pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
Markets featured in the previous brief that are not in today's edition.
Included because probability moved +2.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.4pp.
High activity
AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge.
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
57%
-19.8pp
↑ 90
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
↑ 90 moved -19.8pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 13.9pp, from 75% to 61%, between 08:00 and 09:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #12 of 40 candidates: -19.8pp move, $3K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
22 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
14 active outcomes · source-grouped
63%
-12.5pp
Iliana Iotova
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Iliana Iotova moved -12.5pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: fell 11.0pp from 74% to 63%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #14 of 40 candidates: -12.5pp move, $1K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
8 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
1 active outcomes · source-grouped
21%
-10.0pp
December 31
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
December 31 moved -10.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 8.0pp, from 16% to 24%, between 05:00 and 06:00 UTC. The structured price path makes the change worth checking.
Ranked #15 of 40 candidates: -10.0pp move, $856 activity.
Probably noise
Exact credibility failures are shown so weak participation is not mistaken for signal.
16%
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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Shown only to explain why EventAlpha would not put this on the overnight shortlist.
Probability or movement data is incomplete.
Failed primary floor: 24h move 0.0pp is below 5pp.
Ranked #40 of 40 candidates: $338K activity.