Geopolitics
LowStale data
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
100%
+0.4ppVol $2.9MCloses 31 Jul 2026
Category
Geopolitics
Tariffs, diplomacy, and conflict-related market-implied probability analytics.
327 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 215 matching geopolitics markets.
Showing 1-36 of 215 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Geopolitics
LowStale data
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
100%
+0.3ppVol $1.8MCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowStale data
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
100%
+0.3ppVol $1.7MCloses 31 Aug 2026
Geopolitics
LowStale data
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
100%
+0.4ppVol $1.6MCloses 31 Oct 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
11%
-1.0ppVol $1.2MCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $261KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $233KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $208KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
9%
Vol $162KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.2pp.
High activity
3%
-0.2ppVol $161KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
1%
-0.1ppVol $147KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
5%
Vol $144KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
NATO article 5 before 2027?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
6%
Vol $126KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
1%
-0.05ppVol $124KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Included because probability moved +6.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
21%
+6.5ppVol $117KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
2%
Vol $96KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Included because probability moved -2.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
7%
-2.0ppVol $96KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
12%
Vol $94KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
7%
Vol $75KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
11%
Vol $64KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?
Included because probability moved -1.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
11%
-1.5ppVol $63KCloses 15 Jul 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
7%
-1.0ppVol $57KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowStale data
Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
Vol $53KCloses —
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
7%
Vol $47KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.5pp.
High activity
17%
+0.5ppVol $47KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowStale data
Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
Vol $41KCloses —
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.05pp.
High activity
3%
+0.05ppVol $41KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026?
Included because probability moved -1.4pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
4%
-1.4ppVol $39KCloses 31 Aug 2026
Geopolitics
LowStale data
Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
-0.1ppVol $38KCloses —
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +1.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
18%
+1.5ppVol $37KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31?
Resolution watch: market is near-certain and close to deadline — not a fresh probability signal.
Resolution watch
1%
Vol $35KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Resolution watch: market is near-certain and close to deadline — not a fresh probability signal.
Resolution watch
1%
-0.5ppVol $31KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +2.4pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
33%
-2.4ppVol $29KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.1pp.
High activity
3%
-0.1ppVol $29KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Geopolitics
LowStale data
Will Malaysia recognize Israel by June 30?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
Vol $28KCloses —
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.5pp.
High activity
23%
+0.5ppVol $27KCloses 31 Aug 2026
Avg 24h move 1.3pp44 markets with notable movementCombined activity $75.9M
Back to homepage analytics