Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Cause not yet reportedSignal: Low
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? moved +27.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 18.5pp, from 42% to 61%, between 20:00 and 21:00 UTC. The shape of the price move makes it worth a closer look.
Ranked #7 of 40 moves reviewed: +27.0pp move, $4K activity.
$4K traded in 24hLiquidity $4KUpdated 5 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?
2 active outcomes in this event
December 31
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
December 31 moved +15.3pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 9.3pp, from 75% to 84%, between 21:00 and 22:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #8 of 40 moves reviewed: +15.3pp move, $966 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$966 traded in 24h$1K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 5 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 6 outcomes
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Hotstuff FDV above ___ one day after launch?
8 active outcomes in this event
$20M
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
$20M moved -12.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 9.0pp, from 32% to 23%, between 20:00 and 21:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #9 of 40 moves reviewed: -12.5pp move, $714 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$714 traded in 24h$1K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 5 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 8 outcomes
- $20M19% · -12.5pp
- $50M21% · -2.5pp
- $80M21% · —
- $300M16% · +2.0pp
- $100M20% · +1.0pp
- $150M19% · -2.0pp
2 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
MLB: 2026 National League Champion
4 active outcomes in this event
Los Angeles Dodgers
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Los Angeles Dodgers moved -12.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 7.0pp, from 51% to 44%, between 00:00 and 01:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #10 of 40 moves reviewed: -12.0pp move, $3K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$3K traded in 24h$23K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 5 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 15 outcomes
9 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.