Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch?
11 active outcomes in this event
$100M
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
$100M moved -13.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 13.5pp, from 56% to 43%, between 15:00 and 16:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #6 of 40 moves reviewed: -13.5pp move, $1K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$1K traded in 24h$11K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 10 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 11 outcomes
- $400M18% · -8.0pp
- $50M47% · -12.5pp
- $200M39% · -7.0pp
- $100M46% · -13.5pp
- $10B1% · +0.3pp
- $5B3% · -0.05pp
5 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
WNBA: 2026 Champion
2 active outcomes in this event
Golden State Valkyries
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Golden State Valkyries moved +12.8pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 8.1pp, from 38% to 46%, between 03:00 and 04:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #7 of 40 moves reviewed: +12.8pp move, $3K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$3K traded in 24h$34K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 10 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 15 outcomes
9 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner
13 active outcomes in this event
Pete Fry
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Pete Fry moved -11.4pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 11.5pp, from 55% to 44%, between 19:00 and 20:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #8 of 40 moves reviewed: -11.4pp move, $1K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$1K traded in 24h$13K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 10 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 13 outcomes
7 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
Party of Next Prime Minister of Romania?
6 active outcomes in this event
Independent/Technocrat
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Independent/Technocrat moved -10.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 7.5pp, from 82% to 75%, between 09:00 and 10:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #9 of 40 moves reviewed: -10.5pp move, $6K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$6K traded in 24h$8K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 10 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 6 outcomes
- Independent/Technocrat72% · -10.5pp
- PSD13% · +2.3pp
- AUR4% · -0.6pp
- USR0% · —
- UDMR0% · —
- PNL3% · +0.1pp