Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Low
Next Croat President of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
3 active outcomes in this event
Darijana Filipović
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Darijana Filipović moved -32.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 23.0pp, from 57% to 34%, between 23:00 and 00:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #10 of 40 moves reviewed: -32.0pp move, $2K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$2K traded in 24h$11K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 3 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 3 outcomes
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?
6 active outcomes in this event
UDMR
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
UDMR moved -30.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 22.5pp, from 92% to 70%, between 09:00 and 10:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #11 of 40 moves reviewed: -30.0pp move, $1K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$1K traded in 24h$1K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 3 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 6 outcomes
- UDMR62% · -30.0pp
- USR23% · +1.8pp
- PNL42% · +1.0pp
- PSD83% · +6.3pp
- SOS2% · +0.1pp
- AUR25% · —
Related deadlines movingSignal: Low
Will Reya launch a token by ___?
2 active outcomes in this event
December 31, 2027
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
December 31, 2027 moved -23.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 17.0pp, from 80% to 63%, between 12:00 and 13:51 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #12 of 40 moves reviewed: -23.0pp move, $1K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$1K traded in 24h$2K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 3 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 4 outcomes
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
What price will Zcash hit in 2026?
9 active outcomes in this event
↑ 2000
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
↑ 2000 moved -16.1pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 10.5pp, from 45% to 56%, between 00:00 and 01:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #13 of 40 moves reviewed: -16.1pp move, $2K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$2K traded in 24h$60K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 3 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
- ↑ 200037% · -16.1pp
- ↓ 60020% · -11.0pp
- ↓ 70029% · -4.5pp
- ↓ 4008% · +2.0pp
- ↓ 3006% · -0.5pp
- ↓ 50013% · -0.5pp
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
8 more outcomes in this event are not shown here.