Methodology

How EventAlpha evaluates market signals

How EventAlpha labels probability, 24h movement, activity, liquidity, freshness, signal quality, and source-backed context.

Research Method

How EventAlpha interprets market signals

A transparent research system for turning third-party market data into readable context—without presenting probability as certainty.

01Polymarket data

02Movement

03Volume / activity

04Freshness

05Signal quality

06Interpretation

Selected research topic

Market-implied probability

What it means: The displayed probability is the market's current implied consensus, normalised for clear comparison.
Data used: Current Polymarket outcome pricing from the latest completed EventAlpha sync.
What it does not prove: It does not establish an objective likelihood or show that participants have complete information.
Limitations / caveats: Thin liquidity, wide spreads, participant bias, and delayed snapshots can all affect pricing.

01Market-implied probability

What it means: The displayed probability is the market's current implied consensus, normalised for clear comparison.
Data used: Current Polymarket outcome pricing from the latest completed EventAlpha sync.
What it does not prove: It does not establish an objective likelihood or show that participants have complete information.
Limitations / caveats: Thin liquidity, wide spreads, participant bias, and delayed snapshots can all affect pricing.

02Probability movement

What it means: Movement is the change in implied probability between stored comparison points.
Data used: Current and prior stored probability snapshots, using a 24-hour window when sufficient history exists.
What it does not prove: A move does not prove that new information caused the repricing or that it will persist.
Limitations / caveats: Sparse history, restructured markets, and near-resolution effects can distort comparisons.

03Signal quality

What it means: Signal quality summarises whether the available evidence supports treating a move as research-worthy.
Data used: Movement magnitude, activity, liquidity, freshness, snapshot depth, and resolution state.
What it does not prove: A high-quality label is not a forecast, confidence interval, or recommendation.
Limitations / caveats: The label is constrained by the completeness and timeliness of third-party fields.

04Freshness

What it means: Freshness shows how recently EventAlpha completed the stored market-data refresh behind a reading.
Data used: The latest successful sync timestamp and market-level update time.
What it does not prove: Fresh data does not guarantee that every underlying market field changed at that time.
Limitations / caveats: Source delays, partial responses, and failed refreshes can make a reading older than expected.

05Liquidity / activity

What it means: Participation context helps separate consequential repricing from movement in a thin market.
Data used: Reported volume, available 24-hour volume, and liquidity fields from Polymarket.
What it does not prove: High activity does not mean the current probability is correct or the move will continue.
Limitations / caveats: Activity and liquidity figures reflect public market data and may vary by source.

06Category analysis

What it means: Category views show where movement and activity are clustering across related themes.
Data used: Categorised active markets, aggregated activity, and qualifying market movement from the stored dataset.
What it does not prove: A category trend does not imply that every market within it is moving for the same reason.
Limitations / caveats: Category assignment is a research aid; overlapping events and sparse groups can reduce comparability.

07Limitations

What it means: EventAlpha is an interpretation layer for research, not an execution, forecasting, or advice product.
Data used: Stored third-party market data and, where available, clearly linked contextual reporting.
What it does not prove: Temporal proximity, correlated markets, or plausible reporting do not establish causation.
Limitations / caveats: Data may be delayed, incomplete, unavailable, or shaped by market structure. When evidence is weak, EventAlpha does not guess.

Methodology

How EventAlpha evaluates market signals

How EventAlpha labels probability, 24h movement, activity, liquidity, freshness, signal quality, and source-backed context.

Research Method

How EventAlpha interprets market signals

A transparent research system for turning third-party market data into readable context—without presenting probability as certainty.

01Polymarket data

02Movement

03Volume / activity

04Freshness

05Signal quality

06Interpretation

Selected research topic

Market-implied probability

What it means: The displayed probability is the market's current implied consensus, normalised for clear comparison.
Data used: Current Polymarket outcome pricing from the latest completed EventAlpha sync.
What it does not prove: It does not establish an objective likelihood or show that participants have complete information.
Limitations / caveats: Thin liquidity, wide spreads, participant bias, and delayed snapshots can all affect pricing.

01Market-implied probability

What it means: The displayed probability is the market's current implied consensus, normalised for clear comparison.
Data used: Current Polymarket outcome pricing from the latest completed EventAlpha sync.
What it does not prove: It does not establish an objective likelihood or show that participants have complete information.
Limitations / caveats: Thin liquidity, wide spreads, participant bias, and delayed snapshots can all affect pricing.

02Probability movement

What it means: Movement is the change in implied probability between stored comparison points.
Data used: Current and prior stored probability snapshots, using a 24-hour window when sufficient history exists.
What it does not prove: A move does not prove that new information caused the repricing or that it will persist.
Limitations / caveats: Sparse history, restructured markets, and near-resolution effects can distort comparisons.

03Signal quality

What it means: Signal quality summarises whether the available evidence supports treating a move as research-worthy.
Data used: Movement magnitude, activity, liquidity, freshness, snapshot depth, and resolution state.
What it does not prove: A high-quality label is not a forecast, confidence interval, or recommendation.
Limitations / caveats: The label is constrained by the completeness and timeliness of third-party fields.

04Freshness

What it means: Freshness shows how recently EventAlpha completed the stored market-data refresh behind a reading.
Data used: The latest successful sync timestamp and market-level update time.
What it does not prove: Fresh data does not guarantee that every underlying market field changed at that time.
Limitations / caveats: Source delays, partial responses, and failed refreshes can make a reading older than expected.

05Liquidity / activity

What it means: Participation context helps separate consequential repricing from movement in a thin market.
Data used: Reported volume, available 24-hour volume, and liquidity fields from Polymarket.
What it does not prove: High activity does not mean the current probability is correct or the move will continue.
Limitations / caveats: Activity and liquidity figures reflect public market data and may vary by source.

06Category analysis

What it means: Category views show where movement and activity are clustering across related themes.
Data used: Categorised active markets, aggregated activity, and qualifying market movement from the stored dataset.
What it does not prove: A category trend does not imply that every market within it is moving for the same reason.
Limitations / caveats: Category assignment is a research aid; overlapping events and sparse groups can reduce comparability.

07Limitations

What it means: EventAlpha is an interpretation layer for research, not an execution, forecasting, or advice product.
Data used: Stored third-party market data and, where available, clearly linked contextual reporting.
What it does not prove: Temporal proximity, correlated markets, or plausible reporting do not establish causation.
Limitations / caveats: Data may be delayed, incomplete, unavailable, or shaped by market structure. When evidence is weak, EventAlpha does not guess.