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EventAlpha · Daily Intelligence Brief
Saturday, 4 July 2026 · 4 Jul 2026, 09:36 UTC
Polymarket · 8,155 markets · Synced 27 Aug 2026, 21:01 UTC
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EventAlpha Daily Brief — 2026-07-04 Political markets dominate with notable shifts. 1. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place (21%, +10.8pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-augusto-cury-finish-in-third-place-in-the-first-round-of-the-2026-brazilian-365904 2. What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? (57%, +10.0pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-90-000-by-december-31-2026-345531 3. Largest Company end of December 2026? (81%, +9.0pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-nvidia-be-the-largest-company-in-the-world-by-market-cap-on-december-31-676739 Full brief: https://www.theeventalpha.com/daily-brief/2026-07-04 Read-only. Not financial advice.
Continuity
Compared against the brief filed on 2026-07-03.
Markets appearing in today's brief but not in the previous edition.
What moved overnight
Primary discovery only: ≥5pp move, ≥$10K activity, ≥$1K liquidity. Named events and moves first — not category vibes.
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
21%
+10.8pp
Augusto Cury
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Augusto Cury moved +10.8pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: rose 16.9pp from 4% to 21%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #1 of 40 candidates: +10.8pp move, $14K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
3 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
57%
+10.0pp
↑ 90,000
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
↑ 90,000 moved +10.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 4.0pp, from 49% to 45%, between 14:00 and 15:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #2 of 40 candidates: +10.0pp move, $34K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
30 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
8 active outcomes · source-grouped
81%
+9.0pp
NVIDIA
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
NVIDIA moved +9.0pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: rose 9.0pp from 72% to 81%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #3 of 40 candidates: +9.0pp move, $19K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
98%
+5.7pp
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? moved +5.7pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: rose 10.2pp from 88% to 98%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Recent activity was materially above current liquidity, supporting a real repricing rather than an isolated thin-market tick.
Ranked #4 of 40 candidates: +5.7pp move, $75K activity.
11 active outcomes · source-grouped
62%
-5.5pp
$300M
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
$300M moved -5.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 7.0pp, from 67% to 60%, between 12:00 and 13:03 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #5 of 40 candidates: -5.5pp move, $24K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Weaker signals
Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
4 active outcomes · source-grouped
87%
+31.9pp
3
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
3 moved +31.9pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 25.6pp, from 81% to 55%, between 19:00 and 20:01 UTC. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #6 of 40 candidates: +31.9pp move, $1K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Markets featured in the previous brief that are not in today's edition.
Resolution watch: market is near-certain or awaiting resolution — not a fresh probability signal.
Resolution watch
Resolution watch: market is near-certain or awaiting resolution — not a fresh probability signal.
Resolution watch
Included because probability moved -1.5pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge.
32%
-29.5pp
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? moved -29.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 18.5pp, from 60% to 41%, between 10:01 and 11:03 UTC. Recent activity was materially above current liquidity, supporting a real repricing rather than an isolated thin-market tick.
Ranked #7 of 40 candidates: -29.5pp move, $7K activity.
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
80%
+28.5pp
↓ 700
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
↓ 700 moved +28.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 34.0pp, from 51% to 85%, between 01:01 and 02:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #8 of 40 candidates: +28.5pp move, $1K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
8 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
50%
+21.5pp
↑ 140
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
↑ 140 moved +21.5pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: rose 16.5pp from 34% to 50%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #9 of 40 candidates: +21.5pp move, $1K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
13 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
Probably noise
Exact credibility failures are shown so weak participation is not mistaken for signal.
15%
—
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Shown only to explain why EventAlpha would not put this on the overnight shortlist.
Probability or movement data is incomplete.
Failed primary floor: 24h move 0.0pp is below 5pp.
Ranked #38 of 40 candidates: $133K activity.
1 active outcomes · source-grouped
100%
+19.8pp
Atalanta
Shown only to explain why EventAlpha would not put this on the overnight shortlist.
The probability is near an extreme, reducing discovery value.
Failed primary floor: 24h activity $992 is below $10K.
Ranked #39 of 40 candidates: +19.8pp move, $992 activity.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
4 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
1 active outcomes · source-grouped
100%
+11.3pp
Brighton & Hove Albion
Shown only to explain why EventAlpha would not put this on the overnight shortlist.
The probability is near an extreme, reducing discovery value.
Failed primary floor: 24h activity $579 is below $10K.
Ranked #40 of 40 candidates: +11.3pp move, $579 activity.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
4 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.