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EventAlpha · Daily Intelligence Brief
Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · 16 Sept 2026, 04:32 UTC
Polymarket · 7,670 markets · Synced 16 Sept 2026, 05:00 UTC
Produced by EventAlpha's automated editorial system. AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge. Review the methodology.
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EventAlpha Daily Brief — 2026-09-16 Clarity Act market dropped 15.95pp 1. Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? (17%, -16.0pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/alexandre-de-moraes-out-as-brazil-supreme-court-justice-544795 2. Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? (5%, -14.8pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026-163699 3. What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? (56%, -9.5pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/event/bitcoin-price-before-2027 Full brief: https://www.theeventalpha.com/daily-brief/2026-09-16 Read-only. Not financial advice.
Continuity
Compared against the brief filed on 2026-09-15.
Markets appearing in today's brief but not in the previous edition.
What moved overnight
Primary discovery only: ≥5pp move, ≥$10K activity, ≥$1K liquidity. Named events and moves first — not category vibes.
17%
-16.0pp
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? moved -16.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 14.5pp, from 30% to 16%, between 14:00 and 15:00 UTC. The move was accompanied by substantial recent activity and adequate liquidity.
Ranked #1 of 40 candidates: -16.0pp move, $19K activity.
5%
-14.8pp
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? moved -14.8pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 13.5pp, from 18% to 5%, between 18:00 and 19:00 UTC. Recent activity was materially above current liquidity, supporting a real repricing rather than an isolated thin-market tick.
Ranked #2 of 40 candidates: -14.8pp move, $3.4M activity.
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
56%
-9.5pp
↑ 85,000
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
↑ 85,000 moved -9.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 6.5pp, from 70% to 77%, between 18:00 and 19:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #3 of 40 candidates: -9.5pp move, $24K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
30 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
18%
+9.0pp
US recession by end of 2026?
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
US recession by end of 2026? moved +9.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 14.0pp, from 12% to 26%, between 20:00 and 21:00 UTC. Recent activity was materially above current liquidity, supporting a real repricing rather than an isolated thin-market tick.
Ranked #4 of 40 candidates: +9.0pp move, $151K activity.
18%
+8.0pp
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? moved +8.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 19.0pp, from 35% to 16%, between 18:00 and 19:00 UTC. The move was accompanied by substantial recent activity and adequate liquidity.
Ranked #5 of 40 candidates: +8.0pp move, $12K activity.
Weaker signals
Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
10 active outcomes · source-grouped
76%
+41.0pp
↓$35B
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
↓$35B moved +41.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 64.0pp, from 36% to 99%, between 17:00 and 18:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #9 of 40 candidates: +41.0pp move, $2K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
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Markets carried forward from the previous brief into today's edition.
Included because probability moved -14.8pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved -16.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved -9.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved +9.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.1pp.
High activity
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.8pp.
High activity
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.2pp.
High activity
Included because probability moved +4.7pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Markets featured in the previous brief that are not in today's edition.
Included because probability moved +5.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved -5.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved +2.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.5pp.
High activity
AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge.
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
20%
-15.0pp
Toronto Blue Jays
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Toronto Blue Jays moved -15.0pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: fell 22.0pp from 42% to 20%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #10 of 40 candidates: -15.0pp move, $630 activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
14 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
14 active outcomes · source-grouped
79%
+14.5pp
↑$1.0T
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
↑$1.0T moved +14.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 8.0pp, from 64% to 72%, between 22:00 and 23:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #11 of 40 candidates: +14.5pp move, $2K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
43%
-13.0pp
↑ 3,000
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
↑ 3,000 moved -13.0pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: fell 14.0pp from 57% to 43%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #12 of 40 candidates: -13.0pp move, $5K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
14 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
Probably noise
Exact credibility failures are shown so weak participation is not mistaken for signal.
17%
—
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Shown only to explain why EventAlpha would not put this on the overnight shortlist.
Probability or movement data is incomplete.
Failed primary floor: 24h move 0.0pp is below 5pp.
Ranked #40 of 40 candidates: $283K activity.