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EventAlpha · Daily Intelligence Brief
Wednesday, 29 July 2026 · 29 Jul 2026, 22:31 UTC
Polymarket · 7,705 markets · Synced 14 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
Produced by EventAlpha's automated editorial system. AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge. Review the methodology.
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EventAlpha Daily Brief — 2026-07-29 Significant shifts in Fed rate hike probabilities observed. 1. Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30? (78%, -12.5pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-any-ai-model-reach-1520-overall-arena-score-by-september-30-2026-831352 2. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place (47%, -8.6pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-augusto-cury-finish-in-third-place-in-the-first-round-of-the-2026-brazilian-365904 3. Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? (15%, -7.0pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting-252244 Full brief: https://www.theeventalpha.com/daily-brief/2026-07-29 Read-only. Not financial advice.
Continuity
Compared against the brief filed on 2026-07-28.
Markets appearing in today's brief but not in the previous edition.
What moved overnight
Primary discovery only: ≥5pp move, ≥$10K activity, ≥$1K liquidity. Named events and moves first — not category vibes.
4 active outcomes · source-grouped
78%
-12.5pp
1520
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
1520 moved -12.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 17.0pp, from 89% to 72%, between 15:00 and 16:00 UTC. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #1 of 40 candidates: -12.5pp move, $13K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
47%
-8.6pp
Augusto Cury
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Augusto Cury moved -8.6pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 5.3pp, from 53% to 47%, between 12:00 and 13:00 UTC. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #2 of 40 candidates: -8.6pp move, $20K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
3 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
5 active outcomes · source-grouped
15%
-7.0pp
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? moved -7.0pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: fell 6.0pp from 21% to 15%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #3 of 40 candidates: -7.0pp move, $3.7M activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Different deadline
Different deadline
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
15%
+6.3pp
Caleb Williams
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Caleb Williams moved +6.3pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 8.5pp, from 10% to 18%, between 22:00 and 23:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #5 of 40 candidates: +6.3pp move, $18K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
13 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
8 active outcomes · source-grouped
28%
+6.0pp
CDU
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
CDU moved +6.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 5.0pp, from 22% to 27%, between 16:00 and 17:00 UTC. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #7 of 40 candidates: +6.0pp move, $17K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Weaker signals
Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
9 active outcomes · source-grouped
4%
-20.6pp
2.0–2.4%
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
2.0–2.4% moved -20.6pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 20.7pp, from 25% to 4%, between 12:00 and 13:00 UTC. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #9 of 40 candidates: -20.6pp move, $7K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
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Markets featured in the previous brief that are not in today's edition.
Included because probability moved +3.5pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
Resolution update: resolved market — movement reflects settlement, not fresh repricing.
Resolution update
Resolution update: resolved market — movement reflects settlement, not fresh repricing.
Resolution update
Resolution update: resolved market — movement reflects settlement, not fresh repricing.
Resolution update
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.05pp.
High activity
Resolution watch: market is near-certain or awaiting resolution — not a fresh probability signal.
Resolution watch
AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge.
2 active outcomes · source-grouped
48%
+17.0pp
December 31
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
December 31 moved +17.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 16.0pp, from 32% to 48%, between 17:00 and 18:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #10 of 40 candidates: +17.0pp move, $2K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
5 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
6 active outcomes · source-grouped
20%
-11.5pp
$500M
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
$500M moved -11.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 7.5pp, from 32% to 24%, between 13:00 and 14:01 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #11 of 40 candidates: -11.5pp move, $2K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
6 active outcomes · source-grouped
84%
+10.0pp
September 23
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
September 23 moved +10.0pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: rose 0.5pp from 83% to 84%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #12 of 40 candidates: +10.0pp move, $5K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Probably noise
Exact credibility failures are shown so weak participation is not mistaken for signal.
17%
—
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Shown only to explain why EventAlpha would not put this on the overnight shortlist.
Probability or movement data is incomplete.
Failed primary floor: 24h move 0.0pp is below 5pp.
Ranked #40 of 40 candidates: $192K activity.