Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Unexplained investigationSignal: Low
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? moved +52.3pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: rose 52.7pp from 26% to 78%; no single sharp inflection was detected. The structured price path makes the change worth checking.
Ranked #3 of 40 candidates: +52.3pp move, $2K activity.
Primary market 24h activity $2KLiquidity $2KUpdated 19 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTCUnexplained repricing
Deadline clusterSignal: Medium
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?
2 active outcomes · source-grouped
December 31, 2026
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
December 31, 2026 moved +32.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 30.0pp, from 21% to 51%, between 00:00 and 01:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #9 of 40 candidates: +32.0pp move, $3K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Primary market 24h activity $3KGrouped event 24h activity $29KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 19 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTCUnexplained repricing
Compare 4 source-linked outcomes
Deadline clusterSignal: Medium
Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout
7 active outcomes · source-grouped
50-53%
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
50-53% moved -28.1pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: fell 19.6pp from 24% to 4%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #10 of 40 candidates: -28.1pp move, $9K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Primary market 24h activity $9KGrouped event 24h activity $78KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 19 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTCUnexplained repricing
Compare 7 source-linked outcomes
1 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
Relative mispricingSignal: Medium
Next Secretary-General of the United Nations
8 active outcomes · source-grouped
Rebeca Grynspan
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Rebeca Grynspan moved +20.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 16.5pp, from 53% to 37%, between 17:00 and 18:00 UTC. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #11 of 40 candidates: +20.5pp move, $2K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Primary market 24h activity $2KGrouped event 24h activity $4KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 19 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTCUnexplained repricing
Compare 8 source-linked outcomes
2 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.