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EventAlpha · Daily Intelligence Brief
Wednesday, 9 September 2026 · 9 Sept 2026, 04:22 UTC
Polymarket · 7,711 markets · Synced 9 Sept 2026, 06:01 UTC
Produced by EventAlpha's automated editorial system. AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge. Review the methodology.
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EventAlpha Daily Brief — 2026-09-09 Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? dropped 17pp 1. Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...? (7%, -58.0pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-apple-release-a-foldable-iphone-by-september-30-117967 2. 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis) (30%, -27.0pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-carlos-alcaraz-win-the-2026-men-s-us-open-088472 3. Gemini 4.0 released by...? (13%, -17.0pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/gemini-4-0-released-by-september-30-2026-205508 Full brief: https://www.theeventalpha.com/daily-brief/2026-09-09 Read-only. Not financial advice.
Continuity
Compared against the brief filed on 2026-09-08.
Markets appearing in today's brief but not in the previous edition.
What moved overnight
Primary discovery only: ≥5pp move, ≥$10K activity, ≥$1K liquidity. Named events and moves first — not category vibes.
6 active outcomes · source-grouped
7%
-58.0pp
September 30
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
September 30 moved -58.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 49.0pp, from 56% to 7%, between 05:00 and 06:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #1 of 40 candidates: -58.0pp move, $26K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
6 active outcomes · source-grouped
30%
-27.0pp
Carlos Alcaraz
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Carlos Alcaraz moved -27.0pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: fell 28.0pp from 58% to 30%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #2 of 40 candidates: -27.0pp move, $243K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
32 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
4 active outcomes · source-grouped
13%
-17.0pp
September 30
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
September 30 moved -17.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 21.0pp, from 29% to 8%, between 18:00 and 19:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #3 of 40 candidates: -17.0pp move, $27K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
1 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
6 active outcomes · source-grouped
38%
+9.5pp
Aryna Sabalenka
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Aryna Sabalenka moved +9.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 15.5pp, from 22% to 38%, between 18:00 and 19:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #4 of 40 candidates: +9.5pp move, $58K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
50 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
83%
-8.5pp
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? moved -8.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 4.0pp, from 90% to 86%, between 18:00 and 19:00 UTC. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #5 of 40 candidates: -8.5pp move, $36K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
2 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
Weaker signals
Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
6%
-14.5pp
Matt Gaetz
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Matt Gaetz moved -14.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 11.5pp, from 21% to 9%, between 11:00 and 12:08 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #11 of 40 candidates: -14.5pp move, $1K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
12 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
Markets carried forward from the previous brief into today's edition.
Included because probability moved -17.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved -6.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved +9.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Resolution watch: market is near-certain or awaiting resolution — not a fresh probability signal.
Resolution watch
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.5pp.
High activity
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.2pp.
High activity
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.3pp.
High activity
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
Included because probability moved +10.8pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
Markets featured in the previous brief that are not in today's edition.
Included because probability moved -58.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved +1.8pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved +3.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.1pp.
High activity
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge.
2 active outcomes · source-grouped
31%
+13.5pp
Republican Party
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Republican Party moved +13.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 21.0pp, from 23% to 44%, between 21:00 and 22:00 UTC. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #12 of 40 candidates: +13.5pp move, $6K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
2 active outcomes · source-grouped
79%
+11.5pp
Democratic Party
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Democratic Party moved +11.5pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: rose 11.5pp from 68% to 79%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #13 of 40 candidates: +11.5pp move, $672 activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
7 active outcomes · source-grouped
80%
+10.8pp
1.5T+
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
1.5T+ moved +10.8pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: rose 12.4pp from 67% to 80%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #14 of 40 candidates: +10.8pp move, $2K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
1 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
Probably noise
Exact credibility failures are shown so weak participation is not mistaken for signal.
8 active outcomes · source-grouped
99%
+0.8pp
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Shown only to explain why EventAlpha would not put this on the overnight shortlist.
The probability is near an extreme, reducing discovery value.
Failed primary floor: 24h move +0.8pp is below 5pp.
Ranked #39 of 40 candidates: +0.8pp move, $224K activity.
2 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
15%
—
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Shown only to explain why EventAlpha would not put this on the overnight shortlist.
Probability or movement data is incomplete.
Failed primary floor: 24h move 0.0pp is below 5pp.
Ranked #40 of 40 candidates: $109K activity.