Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
US economic state at the end of 2026?
4 active outcomes in this event
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) moved +11.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 9.0pp, from 79% to 88%, between 02:00 and 03:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #13 of 40 moves reviewed: +11.0pp move, $3K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$3K traded in 24h$6K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 24 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 4 outcomes
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
NC-03 House Election Winner
2 active outcomes in this event
Greg Murphy (R)
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Greg Murphy (R) moved -10.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 10.5pp, from 79% to 69%, between 03:00 and 04:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #14 of 40 moves reviewed: -10.0pp move, $7K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$7K traded in 24h$16K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 24 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 2 outcomes
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Reya FDV above ___ one day after launch?
8 active outcomes in this event
$70M
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
$70M moved -9.5pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: fell 10.0pp from 22% to 12%, gradually rather than in one jump. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #15 of 40 moves reviewed: -9.5pp move, $632 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$632 traded in 24h$3K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 24 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 8 outcomes
- $70M12% · -9.5pp
- $400M6% · -1.4pp
- $150M13% · -1.5pp
- $10M13% · -6.5pp
- $300M7% · +0.2pp
- $40M12% · -8.0pp
2 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
2 active outcomes in this event
December 31
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
December 31 moved +9.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 16.5pp, from 24% to 40%, between 16:00 and 17:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #16 of 40 moves reviewed: +9.0pp move, $7K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$7K traded in 24h$484K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 24 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 13 outcomes
7 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.