Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Gemini 4.0 released by...?
6 active outcomes in this event
October 5
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
October 5 moved -29.7pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: fell 39.2pp from 42% to 2%, gradually rather than in one jump. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #10 of 40 moves reviewed: -29.7pp move, $913 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$913 traded in 24h$50K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 2 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 11 outcomes
- October 21% · -7.8pp
- October 3183% · -1.0pp
- October 1552% · -5.5pp
- November 3098% · +4.3pp
- October 52% · -29.7pp
- October 1044% · +10.5pp
5 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Cause not yet reportedSignal: Low
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? moved -21.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 18.0pp, from 69% to 51%, between 08:00 and 09:00 UTC. The shape of the price move makes it worth a closer look.
Ranked #11 of 40 moves reviewed: -21.0pp move, $749 activity.
$749 traded in 24hLiquidity $4KUpdated 2 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Related deadlines movingSignal: Low
WNBA: 2026 Champion
5 active outcomes in this event
Las Vegas Aces
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Las Vegas Aces moved +17.0pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: rose 18.5pp from 20% to 38%, gradually rather than in one jump. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #12 of 40 moves reviewed: +17.0pp move, $5K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$5K traded in 24h$29K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 2 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 15 outcomes
9 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
What price will Zcash hit in 2026?
9 active outcomes in this event
↓ 700
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
↓ 700 moved +12.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 10.0pp, from 23% to 33%, between 23:00 and 00:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #13 of 40 moves reviewed: +12.5pp move, $747 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$747 traded in 24h$58K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 2 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
- ↓ 70034% · +12.5pp
- ↑ 200053% · +0.9pp
- ↓ 60031% · +11.0pp
- ↓ 1003% · -0.6pp
- ↓ 50013% · -3.5pp
- ↓ 4006% · -2.0pp
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
8 more outcomes in this event are not shown here.