Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
16 active outcomes in this event
Raphaël Glucksmann
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Raphaël Glucksmann moved +28.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 20.0pp, from 60% to 80%, between 16:00 and 17:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #9 of 40 moves reviewed: +28.5pp move, $6K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$6K traded in 24h$17K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 12 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
30 more outcomes in this event are not shown here.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?
16 active outcomes in this event
Other
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Other moved -15.1pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: fell 26.7pp from 51% to 25%, gradually rather than in one jump. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #10 of 40 moves reviewed: -15.1pp move, $926 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$926 traded in 24h$2K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 12 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
- Other25% · -15.1pp
- PSD + UDMR17% · -0.1pp
- PSD16% · +1.4pp
- PNL + USR + UDMR9% · +6.8pp
- PSD + PNL + UDMR11% · —
- PSD + USR + UDMR4% · +0.05pp
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
16 more outcomes in this event are not shown here.
Outcomes divergingSignal: Low
Pro Football: NFC West Champion
4 active outcomes in this event
San Francisco 49ers
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
San Francisco 49ers moved +15.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 11.5pp, from 40% to 52%, between 23:00 and 00:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #11 of 40 moves reviewed: +15.0pp move, $2K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$2K traded in 24h$7K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 12 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 4 outcomes
Related deadlines movingSignal: Low
Surf FDV above ___ one day after launch?
5 active outcomes in this event
$50M
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
$50M moved +15.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 11.5pp, from 71% to 83%, between 12:00 and 13:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #12 of 40 moves reviewed: +15.0pp move, $710 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$710 traded in 24h$2K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 12 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 5 outcomes
- $50M85% · +15.0pp
- $100M75% · +13.5pp
- $500M29% · +7.5pp
- $300M41% · +16.0pp
- $200M52% · +8.0pp