Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Gemini 4.0 released by...?
5 active outcomes in this event
October 10
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
October 10 moved -19.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 15.5pp, from 31% to 16%, between 14:00 and 15:59 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #7 of 40 moves reviewed: -19.5pp move, $751 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$751 traded in 24h$77K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 6 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 11 outcomes
5 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Low
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
4 active outcomes in this event
5.4%
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
5.4% moved +17.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 15.5pp, from 65% to 80%, between 14:00 and 15:59 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #8 of 40 moves reviewed: +17.0pp move, $5K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$5K traded in 24h$55K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 6 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 13 outcomes
- 5.4%72% · +17.0pp
- 5.5%47% · +4.8pp
- 5.7%25% · +7.8pp
- 6.0%7% · +2.3pp
- 5.3%(resolved)100% · +14.4pp
- 4.3%(resolved)100% · +1.6pp
7 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
MT-01 House Election Winner
2 active outcomes in this event
Aaron Flint (R)
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Aaron Flint (R) moved +15.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 14.5pp, from 62% to 76%, between 23:00 and 00:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #9 of 40 moves reviewed: +15.5pp move, $9K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$9K traded in 24h$11K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 6 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 2 outcomes
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
15 active outcomes in this event
4.25%
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
4.25% moved +12.3pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 9.8pp, from 48% to 38%, between 18:00 and 19:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #10 of 40 moves reviewed: +12.3pp move, $780 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$780 traded in 24h$3K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 6 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 15 outcomes
- 4.25%60% · +12.3pp
- ≥ 4.5%10% · -1.5pp
- 4.0%18% · -2.6pp
- 3.25%0% · +0.05pp
- 3.5%2% · —
- 1.250% · —
9 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.