Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
MLB: 2026 American League Champion
2 active outcomes in this event
Cleveland Guardians
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Cleveland Guardians moved -18.3pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 14.9pp, from 64% to 49%, between 01:00 and 02:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #7 of 40 moves reviewed: -18.3pp move, $6K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$6K traded in 24h$7K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 18 Oct 2026, 12:03 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 15 outcomes
9 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Next Secretary-General of the United Nations
8 active outcomes in this event
Rebeca Grynspan
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Rebeca Grynspan moved -13.0pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: fell 14.0pp from 51% to 37%, gradually rather than in one jump. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #8 of 40 moves reviewed: -13.0pp move, $513 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$513 traded in 24h$3K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 18 Oct 2026, 12:03 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 8 outcomes
2 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Low
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
15 active outcomes in this event
Below 4.6%
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Below 4.6% moved +12.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 10.0pp, from 12% to 22%, between 15:00 and 16:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #9 of 40 moves reviewed: +12.0pp move, $7K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$7K traded in 24h$43K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 18 Oct 2026, 12:03 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
- Below 4.6%23% · +12.0pp
- Below 4.5%6% · +0.8pp
- Below 4.7%26% · +5.0pp
- Below 4.4%6% · —
- Below 4.3%3% · -0.3pp
- Below 3.9%2% · -0.05pp
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Cause not yet reportedSignal: Medium
California voter ID referendum passes?
California voter ID referendum passes?
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
California voter ID referendum passes? moved -12.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 6.5pp, from 23% to 17%, between 07:00 and 08:00 UTC. The shape of the price move makes it worth a closer look.
Ranked #10 of 40 moves reviewed: -12.0pp move, $751 activity.
$751 traded in 24hLiquidity $11KUpdated 18 Oct 2026, 12:03 UTCCause not yet reported