Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Relative mispricingSignal: Medium
Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?
11 active outcomes · source-grouped
Joshua Van
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Joshua Van moved +41.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 29.5pp, from 57% to 86%, between 03:00 and 04:00 UTC. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #7 of 40 candidates: +41.0pp move, $2K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Primary market 24h activity $2KGrouped event 24h activity $4KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 20 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTCUnexplained repricing
Compare 11 source-linked outcomes
5 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
Deadline clusterSignal: Low
Who will become a UFC champion in 2026?
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
Ciryl Gane
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Ciryl Gane moved +34.4pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 35.5pp, from 61% to 97%, between 02:00 and 03:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #8 of 40 candidates: +34.4pp move, $3K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Primary market 24h activity $3KGrouped event 24h activity $4KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 20 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTCUnexplained repricing
Compare 16 source-linked outcomes
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
12 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
Relative mispricingSignal: Low
Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?
2 active outcomes · source-grouped
September 30
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
September 30 moved -30.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 19.0pp, from 25% to 44%, between 18:00 and 19:00 UTC. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #9 of 40 candidates: -30.0pp move, $871 activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Primary market 24h activity $871Grouped event 24h activity $928Liquidity per outcomeUpdated 20 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTCUnexplained repricing
Compare 5 source-linked outcomes
Deadline clusterSignal: Low
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?
2 active outcomes · source-grouped
December 31, 2026
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
December 31, 2026 moved -24.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 30.0pp, from 21% to 51%, between 00:00 and 01:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #10 of 40 candidates: -24.5pp move, $2K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Primary market 24h activity $2KGrouped event 24h activity $6KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 20 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTCUnexplained repricing
Compare 4 source-linked outcomes