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EventAlpha · Daily Intelligence Brief
Monday, 31 August 2026 · 31 Aug 2026, 22:44 UTC
Polymarket · 7,965 markets · Synced 1 Sept 2026, 12:34 UTC
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EventAlpha Daily Brief — 2026-08-31 Augusto Cury market surged 24.75pp 1. Gemini 4.0 released by...? (35%, +12.5pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/gemini-4-0-released-by-september-30-2026-205508 2. Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place (22%, -11.0pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/will-ronaldo-caiado-finish-in-third-place-in-the-first-round-of-the-2026-brazili-365896 3. Fed rate hike by...? (67%, +7.5pp) https://www.theeventalpha.com/market/fed-rate-hike-by-october-2026-meeting-808548 Full brief: https://www.theeventalpha.com/daily-brief/2026-08-31 Read-only. Not financial advice.
Continuity
Compared against the brief filed on 2026-08-30.
Markets appearing in today's brief but not in the previous edition.
What moved overnight
Primary discovery only: ≥5pp move, ≥$10K activity, ≥$1K liquidity. Named events and moves first — not category vibes.
4 active outcomes · source-grouped
35%
+12.5pp
September 30
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
September 30 moved +12.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 8.5pp, from 24% to 32%, between 07:00 and 08:03 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #1 of 40 candidates: +12.5pp move, $21K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
1 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
22%
-11.0pp
Ronaldo Caiado
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Ronaldo Caiado moved -11.0pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: fell 22.0pp from 44% to 22%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #2 of 40 candidates: -11.0pp move, $15K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
3 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
2 active outcomes · source-grouped
67%
+7.5pp
October Meeting
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
October Meeting moved +7.5pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: rose 8.0pp from 59% to 67%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #3 of 40 candidates: +7.5pp move, $21K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
24 active outcomes · source-grouped
35%
+7.0pp
Carlos Alcaraz
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Carlos Alcaraz moved +7.0pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: rose 9.0pp from 26% to 35%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #4 of 40 candidates: +7.0pp move, $172K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
18 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
32 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
7%
-6.0pp
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
This cleared the participation bar — worth checking before you open Polymarket.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva moved -6.0pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: fell 6.1pp from 13% to 7%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #5 of 40 candidates: -6.0pp move, $44K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
2 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
Weaker signals
Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
2 active outcomes · source-grouped
98%
+29.4pp
October 31
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
October 31 moved +29.4pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 30.8pp, from 66% to 97%, between 19:01 and 20:01 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #8 of 40 candidates: +29.4pp move, $2K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
1 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
Markets carried forward from the previous brief into today's edition.
Included because probability moved +8.6pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved +2.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Markets featured in the previous brief that are not in today's edition.
Included because probability moved +1.5pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved +4.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved +10.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included because probability moved -7.5pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.3pp.
High activity
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.8pp.
High activity
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.1pp.
High activity
AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge.
12 active outcomes · source-grouped
48%
-12.0pp
↑ $5,000
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
↑ $5,000 moved -12.0pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: fell 12.5pp from 60% to 48%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #9 of 40 candidates: -12.0pp move, $5K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
6 active outcomes · source-grouped
43%
-11.5pp
$250M
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
$250M moved -11.5pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: fell 15.5pp from 59% to 43%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #10 of 40 candidates: -11.5pp move, $1K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
15 active outcomes · source-grouped
34%
+10.0pp
Kim Jong Un
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Kim Jong Un moved +10.0pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: rose 10.5pp from 24% to 34%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #11 of 40 candidates: +10.0pp move, $2K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
10 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
Probably noise
Exact credibility failures are shown so weak participation is not mistaken for signal.
16%
—
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Shown only to explain why EventAlpha would not put this on the overnight shortlist.
Probability or movement data is incomplete.
Failed primary floor: 24h move 0.0pp is below 5pp.
Ranked #39 of 40 candidates: $269K activity.
2 active outcomes · source-grouped
99%
+46.1pp
September 30
Shown only to explain why EventAlpha would not put this on the overnight shortlist.
The probability is near an extreme, reducing discovery value.
Failed primary floor: 24h activity $4K is below $10K.
Ranked #40 of 40 candidates: +46.1pp move, $4K activity.
1 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.