Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
16 active outcomes in this event
↓ 2,250
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
↓ 2,250 moved -17.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 8.0pp, from 74% to 66%, between 14:00 and 15:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #8 of 40 moves reviewed: -17.0pp move, $1K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$1K traded in 24h$199K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 16 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
14 more outcomes in this event are not shown here.
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
MLB: 2026 American League Champion
2 active outcomes in this event
Cleveland Guardians
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Cleveland Guardians moved +16.1pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: rose 19.8pp from 44% to 63%, gradually rather than in one jump. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #9 of 40 moves reviewed: +16.1pp move, $7K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$7K traded in 24h$17K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 16 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 15 outcomes
9 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
New Zealand Election: 3rd Place
6 active outcomes in this event
Green Party
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Green Party moved +13.5pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: rose 13.5pp from 61% to 75%, gradually rather than in one jump. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #10 of 40 moves reviewed: +13.5pp move, $815 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$815 traded in 24h$1K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 16 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 6 outcomes
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
16 active outcomes in this event
Susie Wiles
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Susie Wiles moved +13.4pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 9.7pp, from 12% to 22%, between 22:00 and 23:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #11 of 40 moves reviewed: +13.4pp move, $6K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$6K traded in 24h$12K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 16 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
5 more outcomes in this event are not shown here.