Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Deadline clusterSignal: Medium
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
15 active outcomes · source-grouped
4.25%
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
4.25% moved -34.4pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 25.7pp, from 55% to 30%, between 19:00 and 20:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #9 of 40 candidates: -34.4pp move, $2K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Primary market 24h activity $2KGrouped event 24h activity $7KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 24 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTCUnexplained repricing
Compare 15 source-linked outcomes
- ≥ 4.5%48% · +18.1pp
- 4.25%18% · -34.4pp
- 4.0%6% · -3.9pp
- 3.5%2% · -0.1pp
- 3.75%1% · -2.9pp
- ≤1.0%0% · —
9 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
Deadline clusterSignal: Medium
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
16 active outcomes · source-grouped
Alexandru Nazare
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Alexandru Nazare moved -16.4pp over 24 hours. Stored-history window: fell 18.2pp from 33% to 15%; no single sharp inflection was detected. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #10 of 40 candidates: -16.4pp move, $8K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Primary market 24h activity $8KGrouped event 24h activity $34KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 24 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTCUnexplained repricing
Compare 16 source-linked outcomes
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.
20 additional outcomes were omitted by the bounded event limit.
Relative mispricingSignal: Low
Maduro Prison Time?
5 active outcomes · source-grouped
No prison time
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
No prison time moved +14.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 14.0pp, from 55% to 69%, between 03:00 and 04:00 UTC. Its direction diverged from another moving outcome in the same source event, making the relative repricing worth checking.
Ranked #11 of 40 candidates: +14.5pp move, $2K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Primary market 24h activity $2KGrouped event 24h activity $5KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 24 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTCUnexplained repricing
Compare 5 source-linked outcomes
- No prison time68% · +14.5pp
- <207% · -5.0pp
- 20–402% · -0.3pp
- 60+16% · -15.5pp
- 40–601% · -0.2pp
Deadline clusterSignal: Low
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
15 active outcomes · source-grouped
Below 4.4%
Interesting move, but the market looks thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Below 4.4% moved -14.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest stored-history interval: fell 11.0pp, from 24% to 13%, between 14:00 and 15:00 UTC. Other active outcomes in the same source event also moved during comparable stored coverage, making the event-level repricing worth reviewing.
Ranked #12 of 40 candidates: -14.5pp move, $2K activity, multi-outcome confirmation.
Primary market 24h activity $2KGrouped event 24h activity $43KLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 24 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTCUnexplained repricing
Compare 16 source-linked outcomes
- Below 4.4%10% · -14.5pp
- Below 4.1%6% · -1.8pp
- Below 3.6%1% · -1.4pp
- Below 4.5%21% · -12.0pp
- Below 4.6%32% · -8.5pp
- Below 3.7%4% · +0.7pp
10 more hydrated outcomes are available from the event analysis.