Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
2 active outcomes in this event
October 31
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
October 31 moved +40.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 32.0pp, from 16% to 48%, between 16:00 and 17:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #9 of 40 moves reviewed: +40.5pp move, $9K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$9K traded in 24h$482K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 7 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 12 outcomes
6 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Outcomes divergingSignal: Low
New Zealand Election: 3rd Place
6 active outcomes in this event
New Zealand First Party
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
New Zealand First Party moved -26.5pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: fell 26.5pp from 49% to 22%, gradually rather than in one jump. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #10 of 40 moves reviewed: -26.5pp move, $937 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$937 traded in 24h$1K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 7 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 6 outcomes
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
How many Democratic House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
2 active outcomes in this event
10-12
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
10-12 moved +18.4pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 24.3pp, from 65% to 89%, between 12:00 and 13:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #11 of 40 moves reviewed: +18.4pp move, $2K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$2K traded in 24h$3K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 7 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 6 outcomes
- 10-1296% · +18.4pp
- 13-154% · -4.0pp
- >15(resolved)0% · -1.6pp
- 4-6(resolved)0% · -0.2pp
- 7-9(resolved)0% · -2.7pp
- <3(resolved)0% · —
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
MLB: 2026 National League Champion
4 active outcomes in this event
Los Angeles Dodgers
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Los Angeles Dodgers moved +12.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 10.0pp, from 39% to 49%, between 23:00 and 00:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #15 of 40 moves reviewed: +12.0pp move, $2K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$2K traded in 24h$6K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 7 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 15 outcomes
9 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.