Research library
Evergreen explainers for reading prediction markets with more discipline, plus current event hubs and the latest evidence-led move analysis.
Guides
A guide to resolution criteria, settlement sources, deadlines, edge cases, and the difference between a likely event and a winning contract.
Updated
Read guide →A plain-English guide to the three market metrics most often confused when analysing prediction-market activity.
Updated
Read guide →Learn why a dramatic probability move may be fragile when market depth and activity are low, and which checks make it more useful.
Updated
Read guide →Understand the difference between market-implied probabilities and opinion polls, and how to compare them without treating either as certainty.
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Read guide →A practical guide to interpreting prediction-market prices, confidence, movement, liquidity, and resolution rules before drawing a conclusion.
Updated
Read guide →Live comparisons
Related contracts grouped into one research view so you can compare probabilities, participation, and wording before drawing a conclusion.
Compare market-implied probabilities for the tournament winner, finalists, leading goalscorers, and World Cup Final halftime performers.
Open hub →Compare market-implied probabilities for leading candidates to receive a 2026 Fields Medal, with activity, liquidity, and movement context.
Open hub →Compare the probability that Bitcoin touches a range of downside price thresholds before the end of 2026.
Open hub →Compare market-implied probabilities for GPT-6 to be released by successive 2026 deadlines, with liquidity and movement context.
Open hub →Compare market-implied probabilities for the parties contesting the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary election.
Open hub →Current analysis