Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Low
TIME Person of the Year 2026
16 active outcomes in this event
Ali G
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Ali G moved -26.1pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: fell 48.5pp from 50% to 1%, gradually rather than in one jump. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #9 of 40 moves reviewed: -26.1pp move, $986 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$986 traded in 24h$2K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
12 more outcomes in this event are not shown here.
Cause not yet reportedSignal: Medium
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? moved -15.8pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 12.3pp, from 13% to 25%, between 18:00 and 19:00 UTC. The shape of the price move makes it worth a closer look.
Ranked #10 of 40 moves reviewed: -15.8pp move, $952 activity.
$952 traded in 24hLiquidity $14KUpdated 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Broad consensus shiftSignal: Medium
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
2 active outcomes in this event
June 30, 2027
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
June 30, 2027 moved +15.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 10.5pp, from 49% to 59%, between 22:00 and 23:00 UTC. The move came with substantial trading activity and adequate liquidity.
Ranked #11 of 40 moves reviewed: +15.0pp move, $5K activity.
$5K traded in 24h$27K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 6 outcomes
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Theo FDV above ___ one day after launch?
4 active outcomes in this event
$300M
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
$300M moved -10.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 8.0pp, from 31% to 23%, between 08:00 and 09:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #12 of 40 moves reviewed: -10.5pp move, $2K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$2K traded in 24h$2K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 4 outcomes
- $300M20% · -10.5pp
- $100M35% · -3.5pp
- $1B0% · —
- $700M1% · —