Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Cause not yet reportedSignal: Low
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by...?
1 active outcomes in this event
December 31
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
December 31 moved +24.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 23.0pp, from 71% to 94%, between 20:00 and 21:00 UTC. The move pushed the market close to a final outcome.
Ranked #9 of 40 moves reviewed: +24.5pp move, $1K activity.
$1K traded in 24h$1K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 16 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 3 outcomes
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
NZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?
7 active outcomes in this event
35-39
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
35-39 moved +13.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 12.5pp, from 29% to 42%, between 16:00 and 17:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #10 of 40 moves reviewed: +13.0pp move, $916 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$916 traded in 24h$1K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 16 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 7 outcomes
- 35-3942% · +13.0pp
- <309% · -11.2pp
- 40-4414% · -3.0pp
- 30-3429% · -6.5pp
- 45-494% · -0.5pp
- 55+4% · -1.7pp
1 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Theo FDV above ___ one day after launch?
4 active outcomes in this event
$300M
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
$300M moved -12.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 8.0pp, from 31% to 23%, between 08:00 and 09:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #11 of 40 moves reviewed: -12.5pp move, $2K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$2K traded in 24h$2K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 16 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 4 outcomes
- $300M19% · -12.5pp
- $100M35% · -6.5pp
- $1B0% · —
- $700M1% · +0.05pp
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
New Zealand Election: 3rd Place
6 active outcomes in this event
Green Party
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Green Party moved +12.5pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: rose 14.0pp from 61% to 75%, gradually rather than in one jump. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #12 of 40 moves reviewed: +12.5pp move, $815 activity, other outcomes moved too.
$815 traded in 24h$1K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 16 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 6 outcomes