Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?
63%
Limited history+2.0pp
24h activity $1KCloses 5 Oct 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 39% probability for this outcome, a -2.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
39%Recent probability movement (down 2.0pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
39%
24h Change
-2.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 8.0pp, from 36% to 28%, between 07:00 and 08:00 UTC.
51%
27 Sept 2026, 15:00 UTC
51%
27 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
52%
27 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
52%
27 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
28%
1 Oct 2026, 08:00 UTC
39%
1 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 2.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACM Neto | 38.5% | -2.0pp | $48K | active |
| Jerônimo Rodrigues | 62.5% | +2.0pp | $46K | active |
| Kleber Rosa | 0.1% | — | $25K | active |
| José Carlos Aleluia | 0.1% | — | $33K | active |
| Rui Costa | 0.1% | — | $29K | active |
| Bruno Soares Reis | 0.1% | — | $33K | active |
| João Roma | 0.1% | — | $33K | active |
Probability sum: 101.2% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 5 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC