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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Last recorded probability
0%Trading is no longer treated as active while the final result is pending. The figures below are historical and excluded from live rankings and signals.
Probability history will appear after additional syncs.
0%
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
The timeline will become useful after additional syncs record a second probability point.
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 5 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACM Neto | 0.1% | -30.4pp | $50K | awaiting resolution |
| Jerônimo Rodrigues | 100.0% | +30.4pp | $49K | awaiting resolution |
| Kleber Rosa | 0.1% | — | $33K | awaiting resolution |
| José Carlos Aleluia | 0.1% | — | $35K | awaiting resolution |
| Rui Costa | 0.1% | — | $34K | awaiting resolution |
| Bruno Soares Reis | 0.1% | — | $35K | awaiting resolution |
| João Roma | 0.1% | — | $35K | awaiting resolution |
Probability sum: 100.2% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)