Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1%
Limited history
24h activity $1.2MCloses 4 Oct 2026
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Current implied probability
31%Probability is barely changed (up 1.8pp). High liquidity supports the reading, but this is not a meaningful move.
Signal: HighCurrent
31%
24h Change
+1.8pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.8pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pablo Marçal | 1.3% | — | $324K | active |
| Renan Santos | 3.5% | -1.1pp | $317K | active |
| Ronaldo Caiado | 0.3% | -0.3pp | $432K | active |
| Tereza Cristina | 0.1% | — | $263K | active |
| Romeu Zema | 0.3% | +0.1pp | $414K | active |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 64.5% | -2.0pp | $340K | active |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 31.3% | +1.8pp | $258K | active |
| Camilo Santana | 0.1% | — | $437K | active |
| Fernando Haddad | 0.1% | +0.05pp | $259K | active |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 0.7% | +0.2pp | $350K | active |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 0.1% | — | $329K | active |
| Geraldo Alckmin | 0.3% | — | $288K | active |
| Tarcisio de Freitas | 0.1% | — | $492K | active |
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | 0.1% | — | $1.0M | active |
| Ratinho Júnior | 0.1% | — | $1.6M | active |
| Eduardo Leite | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Aldo Rebelo | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Helder Barbalho | 0.1% | — | $586K | active |
Probability sum: 102.8% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 4 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
1%
4%
0%
0%
0%
65%