Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Spain snap election called by October 31?
54%
Limited history
24h activity $11KCloses 1 Nov 2026
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 59% probability for this outcome, a +19.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
59%Probability moved up 19.0pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.
Signal: HighCurrent
59%
24h Change
+19.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 42.0pp from 17% to 59%, gradually rather than in one jump.
17%
28 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC
17%
29 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
17%
29 Sept 2026, 01:00 UTC
17%
29 Sept 2026, 02:00 UTC
68%
2 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
59%
3 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is up 19.0pp. Liquidity and activity are strong enough to treat this as a more reliable consensus shift.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 59.0% | +19.0pp | $34K | active |
| October 31 | 54.0% | — | $5K | active |
| November 30 | 58.5% | — | $4K | active |
| Spain snap election called in 2026? (copy) | 50.0% | 0.0pp | $0 | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC